By Bill Wilson
President Joe Biden is rapidly losing ground with minority voters in an array of national and swing state polls, throwing a wrench in the “demographic destiny” arguments the left has banked on for years. However, the most disconcerting aspect of this double-digit shift is that it is largely younger minorities rejecting the Democratic label, leaving the party hollowed out significantly compared to a decade ago.
Older minorities – and older white liberals – are the primary groups propping up President Biden now, while younger minorities are significantly less likely to identify as Democrats, believe Biden has accomplished a great deal of good, and believe the Democratic Party shares their values.
Biden’s approval rating with minorities is deeply troubling across the board. According to the latest New York Times / Siena College poll Biden sits at an approval rating of 59% with Blacks – a close to twenty percentage point drop from where he sat when he was sworn into office. Biden’s approval rating with Hispanics is around 40% now, a fifteen-percentage point drop from when he was sworn into office.
The Times poll also reveals 22% of Black voters say they would support Former President Trump over Biden in the 2024 election, which in itself is a starting statistic given the institutional left’s relentless campaign against Trump. This represents a nine percentage-point swing in Trump’s favor compared to 2020. At the same time, 42% of Hispanics say if the election were held today, they would support Trump – a twenty-three percentage point swing in Trump’s direction compared to 2020.
The data shows that economic issues are at the core of these shifts, with twice as many non-whites as whites saying the economy is more important than social issues to them. The Times poll shows both Blacks and Hispanics say economic issues outweigh social issues by forty-four percentage points – 65% to 21% for Blacks and 66% to 22% for Hispanics. For whites, economic issues still outweigh social issues but by just twenty percentage points – 53% to 33%.
However, there is an important distinction in the groups admitting to feeling left behind by Democrats and rejecting the Democratic Party label. According to new data from the American Enterprise Institute’s Survey Center on American Life, younger Blacks are much less likely to support Biden and identify as Democrats compared to older Blacks.
According to AEI’s research, Blacks under age 50 are twenty-one percentage points less likely to approve of Biden than Blacks over age 50, thirty-points less likely to want Biden to be the Democratic nominee, and thirty-six points less likely to say Biden has accomplished a good or great deal in office.
In addition, younger Blacks are around thirty points less likely than older Blacks to say are Democrats – 48.5% to 78.3%. Younger Blacks are also twelve points less likely to say the Democratic Party shares their values and nineteen points less likely to say the Democratic Party is watching out for the middle class. This is key, as the modern Democratic Party has abandoned the middle class, and younger voters who do not have entrenched loyalty to Democrats are more able to see that.
Previous research from Brookings has also shown that younger Latino men support Republicans at higher rates, with 40% of Latino men under thirty supporting a GOP congressional candidate in 2022.
On top of this, less than half of young people plan on voting for president in 2024, down from 57% in the fall of 2019 according to the latest Harvard Youth Poll. This indicates youth enthusiasm is lagging. While conservatives have opportunities to court younger minorities, turnout may simply be depressed as young people move away from Biden.
What this data indicates is that two seemingly disparate trends – the Democratic party’s loss of support with young people and with minorities – are more intertwined than the average poll is capturing.
Americans for Limited Government has been driving home the point for years that the Democratic Party’s disastrous economic policies, hollowing out of the middle class, and obsession with increasingly absurd fringe issues are driving away minorities and young people. However, it is increasingly apparent that the minority shift away from Democrats is largely driven by young people whose views on the parties are less entrenched than those of older voters.
Bill Wilson is the former president of Americans for Limited Government.