By Manzanita Miller
A majority of polls nationally show a close race between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, even as the lawsuit against Trump for allegedly falsifying business records continues in Manhattan. While the race remains tight, there are worrying signs for Biden among key demographics he relied on heavily in 2020, most notably women, young people, Hispanics, and independents. There is also a possible reversal among college-educated Americans, with polls showing those with a college education may be flipping back toward Trump after supporting Democrats heavily in the last two election cycles.
A CNN poll from last week shows Trump leading Biden by six points, 49 percent to 43 percent, advancing his lead after Biden secured a brief blip in the polls in mid-April. The same poll found Americans have increasing nostalgia for the way Trump governed, with over half the public – 55 percent – saying Trump’s presidency was a success. The public has been much less willing to give Biden a thumbs up, with a dismal 39 percent of Americans saying Biden’s presidency has been a success, while 61 percent say his presidency has been a failure.
The latest Rasmussen poll shows Trump up over Biden by a full ten points, and suggests a concerning trend for Biden among women, young people, Hispanics, and independents. However, a full nine percent of voters favor Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the poll, including a broad coalition of swing voters.
The poll also shows Former President Trump leading President Biden with college-educated voters by eight points, a significant reversal from the 2020 election when he lost their vote by twelve points.
According to the Rasmussen poll, Trump is up over Biden by eight points with college-educated voters, 43 percent to 35 percent. While Trump’s margin with college-educated voters is still smaller than his margin with non-college voters, his edge with educated voters is a major reversal from 2020, when Biden walked away with 55 percent of college graduates compared to Trump’s 43 percent. The poll shows Trump leading those without a college degree by around 20 points, in comparison.
This edge with college-educated voters evaporates among Americans with a graduate degree, a group Biden carries by twelve points according to the poll. This is a significant shift among college-educated voters that is validated in other polls as well. The April New York Times poll shows college-educated voters say the Biden years have been “mostly bad” for America by five points. College-educated voters also disapprove of his handling of the economy by eight points, his handling of foreign conflict by sixteen points, and his handling of immigration by a full 20 points.
Women are another swing voter group that heavily supported Biden in 2020 but appear to be gravitating toward Trump in recent polls. The Rasmussen poll shows a dwindling gender gap, with Trump winning women by nine points, 45 percent to 36 percent, and men by twelve points, 48 percent to 36 percent. This is a much smaller gender gap than was seen in 2020, when Biden won women by fifteen points, 57 percent to 42 percent and Trump won men by eight points.
The Times polling hints at the issues driving women away from Biden. Women disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy by a wide twenty-one-point margin, 59 percent to 38 percent. Women also disapprove of Biden’s handling of foreign conflict by seventeen points, 56 percent to 39 percent, and his handling of immigration by twenty points, 58 percent to 38 percent.
Trump has also gained relative to his 2020 numbers among Hispanics, young people, and independents. Rasmussen shows Trump up narrowly over Biden among voters under 39, earning 36 percent of the vote to Biden’s 34 percent, and beating Biden by eight points among Hispanics. The poll also shows Trump beating Biden by eighteen points with independents, all sizeable shifts compared to last presidential election.
Whether these results translate in November is yet to be seen, but Biden’s once solid hold on higher educated Americans and women appears to be slipping. It is worth noting that ten percent of women and twelve percent of college educated voters say they would support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the Rasmussen poll over either Trump or Biden. There is the possibility that at least a portion of these voters will swallow their discontentment and end up supporting Biden in November, but their hesitancy is an opportunity for Trump.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.