By Manzanita Miller
There is a growing chasm between what Democratic voters say they want to see in 2024 and what DNC strategists appear to think will secure themselves the White House for another four years.
Public polling is vividly clear. Most Americans – including Democrats – have strong hesitations about President Biden running for office next cycle.
However, Democratic leaders are brushing off public criticism of the Biden administration and glossing over his plummeting polling numbers. Like in the 2020 election cycle, the sentiment appears to be that while Biden isn’t a perfect candidate, he’s the best they have. This Biden-or-bust sentiment may have worked once, but the 2020 election was more of an anomaly than a typical election year.
The nation was in the throes of the Black Swan pandemic and made a political fixture with a five-decade long career like Biden somewhat more appealing. Since then, economic issues, a burgeoning battle in Eastern Europe, the threat of issues with China, and the immigration crisis have become central issues for the American people, and Biden isn’t seen as capable of fixing these issues.
On top of the changing political landscape, core Democratic constituencies like young people and Hispanics are some of the strongest opponents to Biden running again. These groups may have given the president a chance three years ago, but surveys show their views of Biden have outright reversed.
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows nearly two-thirds of Americans (62 percent) would be ‘dissatisfied’ or ‘angry’ if Biden were to run again, while just 7 percent said they’d be excited.
Even among his own party, less than a third of Democrats and leaners (31%) think Biden should be nominated for the party pick in 2024, while 58% say he shouldn’t.
A new AP-NORC poll shows a vast majority of Americans do not want Biden to run again, but the sentiment is strongest with younger voters. By a margin of 85% to 15%, Americans eighteen to twenty-nine say they don’t want Biden to run for president again. Eighty-three percent of voters aged thirty to forty-four don’t want to see Biden run again while 16% do.
However, all signs point to Democratic insiders pushing for Biden to run again.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the Democratic National Committee recently “approved a resolution expressing its full and complete support of the president’s re-election” and Biden “isn’t expected to face a major primary challenge.”
Reuters recently reported that, “establishment Democrats” in Pennsylvania convened in February at the state party conference and declared “one message for U.S. President Joe Biden as he weighs running for a second term: Run, Joe, run.”
However, the party’s refusal to acknowledge public sentiment and Biden’s push to reshape the 2024 DNC primary calendar has angered some progressive Democrats. RootsAction, a progressive grassroots group that is critical of the Biden Administration, showed up to protest Biden’s move to upset the primary calendar at the Democratic National Committee (DNC) winter conference last month.
RootsAction political director Sam Rosenthal questioned the ethics of letting Biden and his allies upend the DNC primary calendar to favor themselves in case a Democratic primary challenger does emerge. Rosenthal told Reuters, “Joe Biden has repeatedly said he plans to seek renomination. In case there’s a Democratic challenger, it would be simply unethical for the DNC to allow Biden to dictate key rules of the contest, the order of the primaries, before the race begins.”
Importantly, core members of the Democratic Party base, including young people and Hispanics, are some of the groups most critical of President Biden and most in search of a new Democratic pick for 2024.
A recent Monmouth University poll shows Biden’s approval rating with 18- to 34-year-olds is underwater by a jaw-dropping 35 points. In that poll, just 28% of young voters said they approve of Biden’s job as President, down 31 points from when he took office.
A New York Times/Siena College poll found the numbers are even worse for Biden: 94% of 18- to 29-year-olds say they want a different candidate to run in 2024.
Americans for Limited Government Foundation has been tracking the views of Generation Z for over five years, and our research shows while “Zoomers” don’t necessarily view themselves as Republicans, most agree with an America First philosophy and oppose globalist policies. Our research shows 73 percent of Generation Zers support an “America First” philosophy, where the primary goal of any law or policy must be to focus on the needs of Americans, even if they are not in line with the interests of foreign nations and allies.
Our research also finds strong anti-war attitudes among Gen Z, with over half of young people saying they won’t consider a candidate who supports foreign wars. Sixty-eight percent of Generation Z Republicans, an equal share of Generation Z Democrats (68%) and 71% of Generation Z Independents think the U.S. should stay out of international conflicts and only become involved when we are forced to.
Biden’s numbers with Hispanics are arguably worse than those with young people. A recent Quinnipiac poll found just 19% of Hispanics approve of the job Biden is doing as President, and a full 70% disapprove.
An NBC News/Telemundo poll shows Latinos disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy 54% to 41% and disapprove of the cost of living under Biden 60% to 35%. The same poll found Latinos say 39% to 33% that Biden’s economic policies have hurt more than they have helped and 54% of Latinos say their family income is declining due to rising living expenses. Latinos also disapprove of Biden’s handling of border security 51% to 42%.
While these numbers may seem harsh, it is unsurprising Hispanics and young voters are turning away from Biden and the radical left as they watch economic and social mayhem unfold.
The Biden administration’s disastrous handling of the economy, foreign policy and immigration are driving Hispanic and young voters away. Whether Democratic insiders will shift course and choose a new candidate for 2024 remains to be seen, but if they do not, there will be a substantial opportunity for the Republican nominee to make a case for a new direction.
Manzanita Miller is an associate analyst with Americans for Limited Government Research Foundation.
