By Bill Wilson
The attempts by the party elite to drag the country back to an era of increasing globalism, foreign intervention, and a hollowed-out middle class could be thwarted by the public next presidential election cycle.
New polls show the American people vehemently reject the policies of the globalist elite and are demanding a return to Trump-era populism that puts the working class first and opposes foreign meddling.
While some GOP primary voters may be reluctant to back Trump himself, there is widespread agreement among voters that bringing back America First principles is fundamental to getting the country on the right path. Restoring the policies of the Trump Administration, opposing U.S. involvement in Ukraine, reviving the economy, and securing the southern border top the list of priorities for voters.
These issues will play a central role in the GOP primaries but are also a warning to Senate Republicans that voters have no interest in returning to the status que.
The latest CNN/SSRS poll shows Trump leads DeSantis by 29 percentage points with voters of color and 22 points with voters earning less than $50,000 a year. Trump beats out all other contenders in recent polls and remains extremely popular with a growing coalition of working class voters and minorities.
The poll also shows a full 85% of likely GOP primary voters say restoring the policies of the Trump Administration is important to them. Forty-three percent say restoring Trump-era policies are “essential” while 41% say they are “important”. Only 15% of likely GOP voters say restoring Trump-era policies are not important, as shown below.
This is a message to the party-elite attempting to dismantle the working class coalition Trump built that their job will not be an easy one.
Women, white voters, low-income voters, and white-non-college voters are especially in favor of restoring the Trump Administration’s policies and rejecting the globalist elite agenda.
Eighty-six percent of female GOP primary voters say it is important to them to restore the Trump Administration’s policies compared to 83% of men. Lower-income voters are also slightly more likely than higher-income voters to say it is important to them to restore the Trump Administration policies, with 87% of voters with income greater than $50,000 saying this compared to 83% of higher-income voters saying so. However, white non-college voters show the greatest desire to restore the policies of the Trump Administration, with a full 91% saying this is important to them compared to 75% of college-educated whites.
Staying out of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is one of the top priorities for GOP primary voters, with 80% saying it is important for the GOP primary pick to oppose U.S. involvement in the Russia-Ukraine dispute.
Women are especially opposed to U.S. involvement in Ukraine, with 87% of women compared to 75% of men saying it is important the GOP primary pick opposes U.S. ensnarement abroad. Young people also oppose foreign ensnarement at higher rates with 42% of those under fifty saying staying out of the Russia-Ukraine dispute is “essential” compared to 31% of those over 50.
This comes at a time when we are witnessing a massive anti-war sentiment among the public, and particularly on the right. Polling last month showed over half of Americans reject outfitting Ukraine with weapons and public support for continuing to supply Ukraine with weapons has dropped from 60% in May 2022 to under half (48%) in February of this year.
What is more, almost three-quarters of Americans say the U.S. should have either a minor role (49%) or no role at all (24%) in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while just 26% say the U.S. should have a major role.
The share of Democrats who say the U.S. should have a major role remains substantially higher than the share of Republicans at 40%, down from 48% last March. Back in March just over a third of Republicans (35%) believed the U.S should have a major role, but that sits at just 17% today.
The poll also shows GOP primary voters are laser-focused on economic issues, with the majority (32%) saying economic issues top their list of concerns going into the 2024 GOP primaries. Immigration comes in second place (13%) and foreign policy comes in third (9%).
Polls already show the tide is turning on immigration, with a plurality of Americans now demanding a reduction in immigration for the first time in decades. Gallup polling shows two-thirds (63%) of Americans are currently dissatisfied with immigration, the highest share in over a decade. The bulk of the dissatisfaction is driven by Americans who want the levels of immigration decreased, not those who want to expand immigration. According to Gallup, 40% of Americans are both dissatisfied with immigration and want the levels reduced. Among those who are dissatisfied, a full 64% (which is equivalent to approximately 40% of Americans) want less immigration into the U.S., while just 8% want more. The share of Americans who want immigration decreased has more than doubled in just two years from 19% in early 2021 to 40% today.
The public is sending the message that they want the America First priorities of the Trump Administration restored in the next election cycle. However, the bureaucrats in Washington who hoped to quash Trumpism and resurrect the GOP of the 2000’s may be so far out of touch they fail to see this.
Bill Wilson is the former President of Americans for Limited Government.
