By Bill Wilson
A huge new poll has sobering news for President Biden, as the public looks to former President Trump to return stability, peace, and prosperity to the United States three years into the tumultuous Biden Administration. The border is in a state of perpetual crisis, Americans are struggling to make ends meet against ruthless inflation, and multiple countries are on the brink of war.
Americans aren’t just looking to remove Biden – though a majority feel he is an inept leader on virtually every metric. Voters strongly believe returning Trump to the Oval office will improve their own lives, bolster the economy, and keep the U.S. out of war. This sentiment is particularly strong among core coalitions Biden won in 2020 including Independents, women, and minorities.
The latest CBS News/YouGov poll shows Trump beating Biden by three percentage points, 51% to 48% in a head-to-head race and making significant gains with swing voters. Unlike the 2020 election, which had over half of Biden voters voting “against” Trump rather than “for” Biden according to exit polls, the 2024 election could reverse that sentiment. Voters are saying they specifically want to elect Trump for his leadership qualities rather than purely to remove Biden.
Core coalitions of Biden’s base are reversing their vote according to the poll, largely based on economic issues and wanting to keep the United States from becoming ensnared in another war.
Trump is shown winning Independents by ten percentage points, 54% to 44%, which would be a startling reversal from 2020 when Biden won Independents by thirteen percentage points.
Americans for Limited Government recently pointed out the fact that Biden should be highly concerned about losing Independents, as Independents are particularly critical of him on crime, inflation, government spending, and foreign policy.
Trump is also making substantial gains with Black voters, winning 19% of their vote in the current poll after securing 12% in 2020, a seven-percentage point gain. Among Hispanics, Trump’s numbers are startling. The data shows Trump winning half of Hispanics (50%), compared to just 32% in 2020. This would be an eye-popping eighteen percentage-point swing if it materializes. And it might, because the data shows Hispanics believe they would be financially worse off under Biden by twenty-six percentage points.
While Biden is shown narrowly winning women by three percentage points (51% to 48%), this a six-percentage point swing in Trump’s favor compared to 2020 when Biden won women 57% to 42%. We recently pointed out that women in battleground states like Arizona, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania are strongly favoring Trump by double-digits compared to 2020, largely because of economic issues.
The CBS News / YouGov poll shows by a 27-percentage point margin (45% to 18%) Americans say they believe their financial situation would be better off under Trump compared to Biden. Swing voters largely believe their financial situation would improve under Trump compared to Biden, with Independents saying so by thirty-three percentage points (43% to 10%). That is correct, only ten percent of Independents have faith that Biden’s policies will improve their financial situation, a dire statistic in its own right.
Black voters narrowly say their financial situation would be better under Biden, by a shaky eight percentage points (29% to 21%). Hispanics say their financial situation would be better under Trump by twenty-eight percentage points (47% to 19%). Lastly, women say their financial situation would be better off under Trump by twenty-three percentage points (41% to 18%).
Americans also view Trump as the president most likely to keep the U.S. from entering a war, with 43% of voters saying Trump would decrease the chance of the U.S. entering a war compared to a mere 23% who say Biden would. This is a twenty-percentage-point difference that strongly undermines Biden’s position as a world leader.
Among Independents, 45% say Trump would decrease the chance of the U.S. being forced into a war while just 16% say Biden would, a twenty-nine-point difference. Forty-six percent of Hispanics say Trump would decrease the chance of the U.S. going to war compared to just 22% who say Biden would, a twenty-four-point difference. Among women, 43% say Trump would decrease the chance of the U.S. entering a war while just 31% say Biden would, a twelve-percentage-point difference.
These are powerful shifts in public opinion as economic woes continue to plague the country and war is on the brink of breaking out across the globe. The American people have seen Biden’s grievous incompetence play out on the global stage for three long years, and by the looks of it the public is ready to hand the reins back to Trump. Whether this will be permitted to happen hangs in the balance, but if Biden manages to scrape his way into office once again, it will be difficult to make the case that he was elected by the people.
Bill Wilson is the former president of Americans for Limited Government.
