By Bill Wilson
Former South Carolina Republican Gov. Nikki Haley’s crushing loss in South Carolina on Saturday all but erased her chances of becoming the Republican nominee for president after she came in 20 points below former President Trump and lost Republicans by a resounding 40 points. Haley earned just 39.5% to Trump’s 59.8% in the important early-primary state, making her nomination for president untenable by most estimates.
However, what can be gleaned from Haley’s second-place position in her home state is just how concerted of an effort The Swamp is making to thwart a second Trump presidency. South Carolina allows independents – and Democrats – to participate in the GOP primary and participate they did. Exit polls reveal Haley’s modest showing in South Carolina is largely due to outside influence, not a “split” among conservatives as some media outlets would like to imply.
Republicans and conservatives were largely united around former President Trump on Saturday and his focus on America First priorities, including securing the southern border and strengthening the economy, were top priorities to voters.
Trump beat Haley among Republicans by 40 points – 70% to 30% – and he won 84% of very conservative voters, 72% of non-college voters, and 71% of white evangelicals according to NBC News exit polls.
Voters largely prioritized America First issues where Trump has drawn a sharp distinction between his philosophy and that of RINOs and globalists. Immigration and the economy were the top issues to South Carolina voters Saturday, and Trump dominated among voters who prioritized both issues. Trump won 80% of voters who said immigration was their number one issue to Haley’s 20%, and he won 62% of voters who said the economy was their number one issue to Haley’s 38%.
It is reasonable to speculate that Democrat participation in the GOP primary this year may have been substantially higher than it was eight years ago (the South Carolina primary was cancelled in 2020) based on a number of metrics, and that Haley’s relatively robust number of votes was buoyed by forces outside the conservative movement.
Just 68% of the votes cast in Saturday’s GOP primary came from self-identified Republicans according to NBC News exit polls, and Trump won their vote, again, by a resounding 40 points – 70% to 30%. The remaining 32% of the electorate was comprised of non-Republicans, with NBC News estimating around 22% were independents, which would mean around 10% were Democrats or non-affiliated voters.
Non-Republican voters largely formed Haley’s base, with Haley winning the 22% of the electorate who identified as independents by 25 points. She also won an overwhelming majority of voters who self-identified as moderate or liberal, securing 74% of their vote to Trump’s 25%.
We also know that participation in the Democratic primary in South Carolina earlier this month on Feb. 3 was significantly lower than it was in 2020, which could have impacted the Republican primary last Saturday. Registered Democrats who chose to sit out their own primary were eligible to vote in the Republican primary, and its appears that a certain number of Democrats may have “saved” their votes in order to vote in the GOP primary and support Haley over Trump.
In the Democratic primary on Feb. 3, Biden won a mere 126,336 votes compared to turning out over twice as many votes – 262,336 – in 2020. Trump won a total of 451,905 votes in the GOP primary last Sunday, but Haley emerged with 298,674 votes, and most of those votes did not come from Republicans according to exit polls.
The only logical conclusion is that Democrat interference was behind Haley’s close to 300,000 votes, yet even with a concerted effort to displace Trump, she lost resoundingly.
In fact, as NBC News reported last week, a pro-Haley super PAC was caught urging Democrats who didn’t vote in the Democratic primary on Feb. 3 to vote in the GOP primary Saturday. A mailer, sent out by FA Fund Inc., read, “Time is running out. You have a choice. Vote for Nikki Haley against Donald Trump”. This is a crystal-clear call to action for Democrats who couldn’t be bothered to vote for Joe Biden to interfere in the GOP primary and block Trump.
Haley is insisting on staying in the race even after her crushing loss in her home state, but the evidence is clear that she is buoyed by interests outside the conservative movement. Conservatives strongly favor Trump’s America First priorities, and Haley is being propelled forward by the political elite who will spare no cost in thwarting Trump.
As a tool of the Never Trump cabal, Haley needs to tread carefully. Once she no longer holds value as an opposition-piece for those propping up the status quo, she can depend on being abandoned. It will not be long before those forces abandon her altogether and move on to their next scheme to derail Trump.
Bill Wilson is the former president of Americans for Limited Government.
