By Manzanita Miller
A new nationwide poll from Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research shows former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden locked in a dead heat with both candidates earning 44 percent of the vote and another 12 percent of the vote undecided or planning to support a third party.
What stands out is the incredibly small share of voters under age 35 – a group that consists of Gen Z and younger Millennials – who plan to vote for Biden despite supporting him by wide-double digits in 2020. According to the poll, just 33.9 percent of young voters plan to support Joe Biden in November, the lowest level of support for Biden among any age bracket.
Trump is earning his highest level of support from voters under 35 as well. The poll shows Trump beating Biden by over 16 points – 50.1 percent to 33.9 percent – among younger voters. This is the widest margin for Trump among any age bracket according to the poll.
Trump’s margin over Biden rises even further when looking at likely voters who are most inclined to vote in November. Among likely voters under 35, Trump is shown beating Biden by close to 18 points, 54.4 percent to 36.6 percent.
Biden’s age is not a significant contributing factor to younger voters saying they would not support him for president, instead, most voters cite Biden’s performance (37 percent) for the reason they refuse to vote for him in November.
Unfortunately for Biden, his recent State of the Union address did nothing to drum up support and caused a particularly sharp decline in support among younger voters. Voters said by a margin of 37 percent to 29 percent that Biden’s State of the Union speech made them believe he is even less fit for office. Almost half – 47.8 percent – of voters under 35 said Biden’s address to the nation made them believe he is even less fit for office than they originally believed, the largest of any age group. Conversely, only 21 percent of younger voters said the speech improved their confidence in Biden.
The Florida Atlantic University poll is far from the only poll to show Biden suffering double-digit losses with younger voters compared to 2020.
A January USA Today/Suffolk University poll showed Trump leading Biden with voters under 35 – 37% to 33% – after losing younger voters by twenty-four points in 2020.
A battleground state poll from the New York Times in November also showed Biden on the precipice of losing double digits with younger voters, with that poll showing Biden leading Trump by a single percentage-point among voters under 30, 47% to 46%. This is a far cry from the 2020 election, when Biden won voters under thirty 60% to 36%, and represents a ten-point shift toward Trump among young voters.
The exodus of younger voters from Democrats began as a trickle with the departure of Barack Obama from office. Since the 2016 election younger voters have been shifting away from Democrats at the margins, with many refusing to support mainstream Democrats. Biden’s neglect of the working-class, inaction on salient domestic issues like the border crisis, and foreign policy blunders particularly on the Russia-Ukraine conflict have all rapidly accelerated the exodus of younger voters from the left.
Manzanita Miller is an associate analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
