By Manzanita Miller
The Abandon Biden movement – a movement largely started by Arab activists in Michigan unhappy with President Joe Biden’s stance on Israel – has rapidly spread to other states and is a warning sign of the fragmentation Democrats are experiencing.
In the Michigan primary last month, Democrats cast over 100,000 votes labeled “uncommitted” – which accounts for about 13% of the vote – in a vehement protest-vote against Biden’s stance on Israel. The protest vote, combined with the shares of the vote Democratic challengers Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips secured resulted in 150,000 votes cast against Biden, and Biden winning the primary by 200,000 fewer votes than he did in 2020.
The Abandon Biden movement has accelerated since Michigan’s primary and is becoming a larger tent for anti-Biden Democrats who are advocating abandoning Biden in the primaries and perhaps even in the General Election.
In the contentious Minnesota primary on March 6th, 45,914 votes, or nearly 19% of the vote in the Democratic party went to the “uncommitted” category, an even larger share than in Michigan.
North Carolina and Massachusetts, which also held primaries on Super Tuesday, showed a similar appetite for rejecting Biden at the ballot box. In North Carolina 12% of voters voted “no preference”, and in Massachusetts over 9% of Democratic primary voters chose “uncommitted” on Super Tuesday.
While the movement is largely driven my Muslim activists critical of Biden’s stance on Israel, the movement is drawing in support from other minority groups, younger voters, and progressive Democrats.
The movement is the latest in a series of blows to Biden, who is already facing tough reelection prospects, sagging approval ratings, and struggling with key coalitions of his 2020 base including women, minorities, and younger people.
The latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll finds Former President Trump beating Joe Biden 40% to 38%, and Biden with a current disapproval rating of 55%.
The anti-Biden sentiment brewing in contentious battleground states like Michigan and Minnesota could make Biden even more vulnerable in November. A growing share of disenchanted Democrats plan to vote third party or even flip their votes to Trump in the general election, according to some polls.
One poll by the Council on American Islamic Relations conducted after the Michigan primary found more Muslim voters would choose Trump – 13% – over Biden – 8% – if the General Election were held that day. The majority wanted a third option.
The movement largely began as a foreign-policy protest vote focused on the Democratic primaries, but it’s worth considering whether a fraction of the movement will refuse to support Biden in the General Election as well.
While foreign policy is at the core of the Abandon Biden movement, President Biden has not been polling particularly well among Democratic primary voters for months now, and the Abandon Biden movement appears to give Democrats an “out” from lending him their support.
How this movement will impact the General Election in states with large Muslim populations, as well as active populations of younger voters and progressives, is yet to be seen. The Abandon Biden movement could peel off a significant share of Democrats that Biden cannot afford to lose in battleground states.
Manzanita Miller is an associate analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
