Manzanita Miller
New polling from the New York Times / Siena College reveals that President Joe Biden’s base in battleground states continues to dwindle, leaving a sliver of the support he relied on in 2020. We have extensively covered the fact that polling reveals a double-digit decline in support among key groups of swing voters, but the latest Times poll drives that point home even further.
According to a breakdown of voters who plan to support Biden in November, current Biden supporters represent a fraction of the relatively diverse base Biden relied on in 2020. The data shows current Biden loyalists are older, whiter, and more abortion-driven compared to the voter population as a whole. Biden deserters are younger, more diverse, and more focused on the economy and immigration. Deserters are also more likely to glean their views from non-mainstream news sources, including TikTok and the Joe Rogan podcast, according to the data.
According to the Times poll, Biden supporters have a brighter view of life in general compared to those who plan to cast their votes elsewhere in November. Eighty-six percent of likely Biden voters say they are somewhat or very satisfied with “the way things are going” in their lives, compared to 63 percent of likely voters of former President Donald Trump, a 23-point difference.
Biden supporters are also out of step with the rest of the country in terms of policy priorities. While the most important issue to most Americans (21 percent) is the economy followed by immigration (12 percent), the number one issue to Biden voters is abortion (20 percent) and then the economy (12 percent). What’s more, just two percent of Biden voters prioritize immigration compared to 12 percent of the general population.
Voters who claim abortion is their number one issue are far more likely to be planning to vote for Biden. Those who say abortion is the largest factor in their vote choice in November (11 percent of those polled) plan to support Biden by 17 points (20 percent to three percent).
On the flip side, those who prioritize the economy and immigration are much more likely to support Trump according to the poll. Among voters who prioritize the economy (21 percent of those polled), Trump beats Biden by 18 points (30 percent to 12 percent). Among those who prioritize immigration (12 percent of those polled), Trump beats Biden by 19 points (21 percent to two percent).
Trump also leads Biden by wide double digits when it comes to handling both issues. Voters say by 22 points Trump would handle the economy better than Biden in the current poll. In last month’s Times poll, which asked voters to rank both candidates on handling immigration, voters said they disapproved of Biden’s handling of immigration by 32 points but narrowly approved of Trump’s handling of immigration by three points.
According to a breakdown of the Times data on Biden loyalists compared to Biden defectors, voters who do not support Biden are highly economically driven, with 71 percent of Biden defectors compared to just 16 percent of Biden loyalists saying the economy is currently in poor condition. In addition, 29 percent of Biden defectors compared to 15 percent of Biden loyalists say inflation and the economy are the reasons behind their vote choice in November.
According to the Times data, Biden defectors are more likely to be young, with over half (51 percent) being under the age of 45, while only a third of Biden loyalists are under age 45. Biden defectors are also more likely to say immigration is the reason for their vote choice (11 percent) compared to those who remain loyal to Biden (one percent).
Who are Biden’s core supporters? According to the data, those who remain loyal to Biden are much more likely to believe Trump is responsible for the overturning of Roe vs. Wade, with a full 84 percent of Biden loyalists saying Trump is responsible for overturning Roe compared to 49 percent of those who plan to desert Biden in November.
Biden loyalists are also more likely to be white (67 percent) compared to those who plan to desert him (42 percent). Those who remain loyal to Biden also say they want to bring politics “back to normal” (65 percent) compared to those who plan to desert Biden (38 percent).
This latest set of battleground state polling reveals that Biden voters are wildly out of step with the rest of the population when it comes to priorities. Biden supporters tend to have a rosier view of the economy and of the way their own lives are going and focus their political might on the issue of abortion. In contrast, a wide majority of Americans are focused on the economy and immigration.
This current political landscape is significantly different from 2020, when battling the covid pandemic was a priority for most Americans, regardless of their political inclinations. Now, the two issues that voters say they prioritize the most, are issues that Trump has a wide advantage over Biden on.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
