By Bill Wilson
According to a large survey done by the Washington Post and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, non-committed voters who feel disillusioned with the political system still trust former President Donald Trump over incumbent President Biden on most major electoral issues by double digits.
The post conducted a survey of over 3,500 low propensity voters in six battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – that fall into categories of either infrequent voters, new voters, or uncommitted voters.
According to the Post, the sample of Deciders included one or more of the following categories: individuals who voted in either 2020 or 2016 but not both, voters under age 25, voters who registered after 2022, voters who said they were not committed to either Trump or Biden, and voters who switched parties between 2016 and 2020.
The Post has dubbed these sporadic, non-committed voters the “Deciders” and noted Deciders lean younger and more ethnically diverse than frequent voters. According to the research, Deciders approve of Trump over Biden by around thirteen points, even though they largely feel dissatisfied with their political options.
It’s not new information that infrequent voters favored Trump in the last two election cycles, but the fact that current infrequent voters are more likely to overlap with groups Democrats have traditionally dominated with – younger voters and minorities – this does pose a serious threat to Biden.
According to the Post’s extrapolations, a full 61 percent of registered voters in the six battleground states are Deciders, with 33 percent being infrequent voters and 44 percent being uncommitted to Trump or Biden, and 17 percent fitting both groups. The remaining 39% of registered voters are the non-Deciders, voters in battleground states who are committed to Biden or Trump and likely to turn out in November due to their voting patterns.
Whether the Deciders will vote and how they will vote remain wide open to a variety of factors, but the data does reveal an edge for Trump among Deciders, and that on key issues like the economy and immigration, Deciders favor Trump over Biden.
According to the survey, Deciders favor Trump over Biden by around six percentage points – 44 percent to 38 percent – in a head-to-head race. At the same time, when Kennedy is added to the ballot, a full 61 percent of Deciders say they would definitely or probably vote for Kennedy.
Although Deciders rate both Trump (53 percent) and Biden (66 percent) negatively, Trump enjoys a higher favorable rating (47 percent) than Biden does (34 percent). In other words, while Biden is 32 percentage points in the negative with Deciders, Trump is a mere six points in the negative, a 26-point gap in Trump’s favor.
On key issues, Deciders strongly favor Trump on seven out of the ten issues, including the economy and immigration. Deciders favor Trump on the economy by 32 points (53 percent to 21 percent), on immigration by 28 points (49 percent to 21 percent), on crime by 22 points (41 percent to 19 percent), on the Israel-Hamas war by 16 points (35 percent to 19 percent), on the Russia-Ukraine war by thirteen points (37 percent to 24 percent), and even on “threats to democracy” by nine points (38 percent to 29 percent) and gun control by six points (32 percent to 26 percent).
The only issues where Deciders favor Biden are climate change by 17 points (35 percent to 18 percent), racism by 14 points (35 percent to 21 percent) and abortion by 11 points (36 percent to 25 percent). However, climate change, racism and abortion are relatively low priorities according to the data.
Overall, while Deciders are being placed in that category specifically because they will have an outsized impact on the electoral results in battleground states and because they are uncommitted, Deciders trust Trump over Biden on a multitude of issues and are slightly more open to Trump as a candidate over Biden.
Other research Daily Torch reported on earlier this month revealed a similar conservative-friendly lean among new voters who lean young and Hispanic. We noted that a new data report from BSP Research and UnidosUS shows that newer voters entering the voter pool – either formerly non-voters or younger voters who were ineligible to vote previously – skew heavily independent and are less likely to be Democrats than older minorities are.
The UnidosUS report found that new registered Latino voters are significantly less likely to identify as Democrats compared to established voters. Just 45 percent of newer voters identity as Democrats, compared to 59 percent of more established (and usually older) voters, a fourteen point difference.
What should be taken away is that a majority of eligible voters in battleground states are in the persuadable or new voter category, and uncommitted voters skew young, minority, or low propensity. Yet, despite minorities and young people supporting Biden by wide double digits in 2020, they are leaning away from Biden.
Whether these voters turn out to vote in November or decide to sit out the next election remains to be seen, but the Post’s findings highlight the large impact of low propensity voters in battleground states.
Bill Wilson is the former president of Americans for Limited Government.
