By Manzanita Miller
With the nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic Party’s presidential pick seemingly imminent, she is enjoying a bump in favorability that may or may not be fleeting.
YouGov polling reveals Harris’ favorability rating has climbed by five points since early June, before the presidential debate debacle that escalated President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race.
According to a new CNN/SSRS poll released Wednesday, Harris is polling slightly ahead of where Biden was earlier this month, but still trailing former President Donald Trump by three percentage points. The poll found Trump earning 49 percent of the vote to Harris’ 46 percent, whereas Biden earned only 43 percent of the vote in the earlier survey.
Does Harris give Democrats a better shot at retaining the White House than Biden did? On one hand, Democrats can breathe a collective sigh of relief that Biden has finally stepped aside after years of alarmingly low approval ratings and concerns from across the political spectrum about his fitness for office.
On the other hand, Harris’ approval rating is still low, and public trust in her abilities remains shaky. Even coalitions of her own base remain skeptical that she can beat Trump. In addition, swing voters broadly favor Trump’s handling of key issues including inflation, immigration, crime and foreign policy.
A YouGov poll released Monday shows Americans broadly believe Harris will not beat Former President Trump in November. According to the survey, Americans say that in a head-to-head race Trump would definitely or probably beat Harris by a 32-point margin. Fifty-five percent of the public believes Trump would win in that matchup, compared to 23 percent who say Harris would win.
Very few subgroups have confidence in Harris’ ability to beat Trump, but a slightly larger share of Black Americans and Millennial and Gen X voters believe she could, compared to other groups. A third of Black voters think Harris could definitely or probably beat Trump, but slightly more (37 percent) say Harris would lose, amounting to a four-point difference in Trump’s favor. Whites say by a 41-point margin, 61 percent to 20 percent, that Trump would beat Harris. Hispanics agree Trump would beat Harris by a nine-point margin, 40 percent to 31 percent.
Harris does eight percentage points better with voters over 65 and seven percentage points better with voters aged 45-64 than she does among voters under age 30.
While Democrats hold a higher level of optimism for Harris’ prospects, 20 percent believe Trump would beat her. Democrats say by a 32-point margin – 52 percent to 20 percent – that Harris would definitely or probably beat Trump.
Independents have negligible faith in Harris’ ability to beat Trump, with just 15 percent saying they believe she will be able to do so. Independents say Trump would beat Harris by a broad 39-point margin, 54 percent to 15 percent.
Then there is the fact that on key metrics, swing voters largely trust Trump over Harris. On immigration, Trump maintains a fifteen-point lead over Harris, 45 percent to 30 percent, and broad support form swing voters. Independents trust Trump over Harris by 17 points on immigration, while voters under 30 narrowly trust Trump over Harris on immigration by two points and voters 30-44 trust Trump over Harris by eight points. Hispanics narrowly trust Trump over Harris by three points as well.
Trump enjoys a fourteen-point lead over Harris on handling inflation, and key groups of swing voters side with the former president. Trump holds a sixteen-point lead over Harris on handling inflation among independents, a seven-point lead over Harris among voters under 30, and an eleven-point lead over Harris among voters 30-44. Among Hispanics, Trump holds a nine-point lead over Harris on handling inflation.
On crime, an issue Harris has attempted to seize on as a former prosecutor, the public trusts Trump over Harris by 12 points, 41 percent to 29 percent. Swing voters, including independents and younger voters also trust Trump more. Independents trust Trump over Harris by 12 percentage points on crime, 35 percent to 23 percent. Voters under age 30 trust Trump over Harris by seven points and voters 30-44 trust Trump over Harris by six points. Hispanics trust Trump over Harris on crime by two points.
The public also trusts Trump over Harris on foreign policy by twelve points, 44 percent to 32 percent, with swing voters largely favoring Trump. Independents trust Trump over Harris by 12 points, while voters under 30 trust Trump over Harris by seven points and voters 30-44 trust Trump over Harris by two points. Hispanics trust Trump over Harris by a single percentage point.
Harris does not poll significantly better than Biden does on handling key issues, indicating that the bump in her favorability rating is more than likely tied to public relief that she does not have Biden’s cognitive and physical concerns. Biden’s physical and mental capacity aside, his administration’s handling of issues like the border cris, the war in Ukraine, and crippling inflation remain huge concerns for the American people. A candidate who is mentally and physically fit enough to handle the duties of the President is the bare minimum, and Harris has not shown she could handle major national issues better than Biden did.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
