By Manzanita Miller
The last three weeks have captured more shifts politically than possibly the entire first six months of the election year. On June 27, former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden faced off in a debate performance that sent shockwaves through the Democratic Party and led to an increase in support for Trump among swing voters.
On July 13th, an assassin attempted to take Former President Trump’s life at his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, and miraculously missed.
Within 48 hours, Trump emerged at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, and announced his running mate while welcoming speeches from unlikely sources including Teamsters union president Sean O’Brien.
In the latest round of polls released since Trump survived the assassination attempt, he is up against Biden in seven battleground states and has increased his favorable numbers with independents and young people significantly.
According to the latest Emerson College poll Trump leads Biden by three points in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, by five points in Georgia, by six points in Pennsylvania, by nine points in North Carolina and by a full ten points in Arizona. These numbers are the same or higher for Trump in each state compared to March polling.
The poll also finds that Americans say Biden should withdraw from the race by a four-point margin, 52 percent to 48 percent, while Americans say Trump should not withdraw from the race by a twelve-point margin, 56 percent to 44 percent.
According to Emerson, a majority of swing voters including 54 percent of whites and 55 percent of Hispanics as well as 60 percent of voters under age 50 say Biden should exit the race.
Then there is the latest YouGov poll which has Trump leading Biden by two points nationally, 43 percent to 41 percent, a fractional change from polling conducted July 7th-9th by YouGov, prior to the assassination attempt against Trump. At that time, Trump led Biden by three points, 43 percent to 40 percent.
Trump has gained four points with voters under 30 since the first week of July, going from 27 percent to 31 percent now. Meanwhile, Biden has lost seven points in about a fortnight, going from 52 percent of the youth vote on July 7th-9th to 45 percent now.
The story is similar with Hispanics. According to the survey, Trump actually lost two percentage points with Hispanics since the first week of July, going from 37 percent to 35 percent today. Biden lost five points during that period, dropping from 48 percent the first week of July to 43 percent now.
Trump has also enjoyed a very modest two-point bump in his favorable rating since early July, with 43 percent of Americans holding a favorable view of him now, compared to 41 percent in early July. However, his favorable rating has risen substantially with two groups – young voters and independents.
According to the survey, Trump’s favorability rating has risen a full ten percentage points among voters under 30 since the first week of July. His favorable rating went from 30 percent the first week of July to 40 percent today. Trump made a less impressive gain in favorability with voters aged 30 to 44, going from 36 percent in early July to 39 percent today. Trump also gained eight percentage points among independent voters from the first week of July to today, going from 35 percent the first week of July to 40 percent today.
The past few weeks have captured a significant number of changes, and it may take a few more weeks for the events of the past month to fully sink in and be borne out in polls. However, what we know right now is that Trump has continued to make incremental gains over the past month, while Biden has lost ground.
Trump’s favorable rating has climbed substantially among young voters and independents since the first week of July as well. However, the share of younger voters who say they are planning to vote for Trump lags behind the share who hold a favorable view of him.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
