By Manzanita Miller
Speculation is flying after the first and only presidential debate of 2024 which aired last Thursday, with the broad consensus being that President Joe Biden’s performance was at minimum troubling enough to prompt serious discussions about replacing him as the Democratic nominee. That said, a replacement strategy for Democrats has not been fleshed out, and it is still entirely possible that Biden will remain former President Donald Trump’s key challenger leading into November.
What we do know is that Biden’s performance – which included meandering and incoherent answers, and a predominantly dazed expression throughout much the of the debate – has deeply troubled the American people.
While some polls post-debate show a majority of Democrats still support Biden as the nominee, several polls show wide deficits for Biden among groups he relied on heavily in 2020, including women, young people, minorities and independents. These are groups Biden has been suffering with due to the state of the economy, uncontrolled inflation, and the border crisis for months now, but the debate did nothing to reestablish their support.
A USA Today / Suffolk University poll released Tuesday found that Trump has edged ahead of Biden compared to the same poll in May, now leading Biden 41 percent to 38 percent. In May, the two were equally tied 37 percent to 37 percent. That poll also found 41% of Democrats want Biden replaced as the nominee.
The shift is narrow, but there are much wider concerns based on the share of swing voters and Democrats post-debate who now say Biden should step aside.
A YouGov poll conducted over the weekend showed a modest majority of Democrats – 55 percent – say that Biden should keep running while 45 percent say he should step down. A full 70 percent of independent or uncommitted voters say after Thursday’s debate Biden should step aside.
Biden underperformed in the debate – he was seen as shockingly fragile and ineffective – but there is consensus that Trump slightly exceeded expectations. Going into the debate pundits voiced that Trump had to appear less antagonistic and more presidential to court swing voters, and there is strong evidence that he achieved that.
The debate was an opportunity for Americans to evaluate the general demeanor and optics of each candidate and Trump was the clear winner. By broad consensus, Trump appeared “more presidential”, a better communicator, and better able to articulate his vision compared to Biden.
Americans say by eighteen points, 46 percent to 28 percent, that Trump appeared more “presidential” than Biden during the debate. The American people also say Trump inspired confidence over Biden by 26 points, 44 percent to just 18 percent. Americans also say Trump presented ideas clearly over Biden by 26 points, 47 percent to 21 percent.
The debate produced dismal numbers for Biden among groups he has already been suffering with due to his record over the past four years. Independents say Trump appeared more presidential by 23 points, 41 percent to 18 percent. Hispanics say Trump appeared more presential by 19 points, 34 percent to 15 percent. Young people narrowly say Trump appeared more presidential (26 percent) than Biden (22 percent), and women say Trump appeared more presidential by 13 points, 35 percent to 22 percent.
According to the poll, 56 percent of Americans say Trump won Thursday’s debate, 28 percent say it was a tie, and 16 percent claim Biden won. Young people say Trump won the debate by 19 points, 42 percent to 23 percent. Hispanics maintain that Trump won the debate by 34 points, 49 percent to just 15 percent. Women also agree Trump won by a 34-point margin, 52 percent to 18 percent.
These numbers are staggeringly low compared to polling conducted after the final presidential debate between Trump and Biden in 2020. At that time, there was broad consensus among swing voters – who went on to support Biden in November – that Biden had won that debate.
After the final 2020 debate, independents said Biden won by 19 points and went on to support him by 13 points in November. Women said Biden won by 25 points and ended up supporting him by eight points in November, and young people said Biden beat Trump by a resounding 39 points and then supported him by 24 points in November.
While debates are far from the end all be all, and merely a fragment of data in a sea of other variables that can impact an election, it is telling that key groups of voters who believed in Biden’s debate performance in 2020 and ended up supporting him at the ballot box are now saying Biden lost the only debate of 2024.
It is unlikely Biden’s poor debate performance significantly altered a trajectory that was not already in motion among swing voters. If anything, Biden’s disorganized and at times incoherent performance is simply another factor driving swing voters away from him.
Biden’s poor performance can also be seen as an excuse that independents and even former Biden voters can arm themselves with to justify their unwillingness to support his bid. The debate gave voters an “out”, and whether they use that to demand a new candidate, refuse to vote at all, or flip their support to Trump or Robert F. Kennedy Jr., remains to be seen. Swing voters now have a strong justification for why they aren’t supporting Biden, even if his inept handling of immigration, the economy and the global political climate are also massive factors.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
