By Manzanita Miller
Dissident third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the presidential race today, Aug. 23, and has endorsed former Donald President Trump, which begs the question, how might Kennedy’s departure and endorsement of Trump impact the race?
Kennedy’s campaign announced plans earlier this week to address “his path forward,” at an event in Phoenix, Ariz. today. Trump is set to appear in the Phoenix-area tonight, which increased speculation that the two may appear at a joint event in Arizona.
The question is, with a sudden influx of would-be Kennedy supporters into the potential voter pool, who is more likely to benefit, Trump or Harris?
The latest New York Times battleground state poll reveals that when Kennedy is added into the mix, he earns around 6 percent of the vote. This may not sound like a lot, but a total of 154.6 million votes were cast in the general election four years ago. If a similar number of voters participate this fall, 6 percent of that number is a potential nine million votes up for grabs with Kennedy out. Considering Kennedy is a third-party candidate running a somewhat dissident campaign and a vote for him is seen as sticking it to the two-party system, at least a fraction of his followers will likely sit out the election.
That said, by many accounts Kennedy’s departure from the race could be a boon for Trump. With Kennedy’s outright endorsement of Trump, that could push would-be Trump supporters who were temporarily enamored with Kennedy back into the Trump voter pool. Data also suggests that Kennedy’s campaign was attracting more support from conservatives than from the left.
Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, shared on X Wednesday that Cook’s data reveals swing state voters who favor Kennedy are more likely to be willing to support Trump (46 percent) over Harris (26 percent).
There is other data to support the notion that Kennedy’s voters are more likely to be favorable on Trump than Harris. For example, in the latest YouGov survey, voters with a favorable view of RFK Jr. are much more likely to be Trump voters than Harris voters.
YouGov’s data shows 53 percent of likely Trump voters have a favorable view of Kennedy while 36 percent hold an unfavorable view of him. Voters who favor Trump are more likely to view Kennedy favorably as well. On the flip side, voters who plan to vote for Kamala Harris largely have a negative view of Kennedy. 69 percent of likely Harris voters have an unfavorable view of Kennedy according to the poll while only 19 percent have a favorable view.
While Kennedy is widely viewed more positively among would-be Trump voters, there’s also evidence that Kennedy has been collecting at least a portion of disaffected Trump voters. Meaning, while many of Kennedy’s supporters were never going to vote for Biden and will not vote for Harris, they may be disgruntled independents or would be conservatives who chose Kennedy over Trump for a reason. Most polls show Kennedy has been drawing more support from would-be Trump voters than from would-be Biden or Harris voters.
For example, an NBC News poll from July, before Biden exited the race, showed Trump beating Biden by two points, 45 percent to 43 percent, in a head-to-head race, with 12 percent undecided.
Once third-party candidates were added into the poll, Trump’s lead against Biden increased by three points, with Trump earning 40 percent of the vote to Biden’s 37 percent, while Kennedy earned 10 percent and Jill Stein, Chase Oliver, and Cornel West came in at 3 percent or less. In that poll,10 percent of would-be Trump voters went to Kennedy, while 6 percent of would-be Biden voters did.
Demographics come into play as well. Kennedy supporters are more likely to be young, Hispanic, and moderate or conservative, a political mixed bag.
According to YouGov, Kennedy’s favorable rating is positive among voters under 44 but goes into the negative with voters aged 45 and up. Kennedy is in the positive by three points with voters under 30 and one point with voters 30-44 but drops into the negative by 13 points with voters 45-64 and 19 points with voters over 65.
Kennedy has long been more favorable among Hispanics than any other group, earning a net favorable rating of four points among Hispanics while sitting at a deficit of minus eleven points with whites and minus one point with Blacks with a wide majority of Blacks being undecided.
Kennedy’s favorable rating is highest among conservatives, with a net positive rating of 13 points, and among moderates with a net positive rating of 6 points, but he holds a favorable rating of minus 50 points among liberals.
While it is entirely possible a share of Kennedy supporters are disaffected Trump voters who do not intend to return to the fold, or third-party independents who never had any intention of supporting either major party candidate, Kennedy’s departure from the race is almost certain to benefit Trump more than Harris. An outright Trump endorsement could push a large swathe of Kennedy’s nine million or so voters toward the former president.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
