By Manzanita Miller
A new CNN poll reveals that while Kamala Harris has made incremental gains with young voters compared to where President Biden was when he made his exit, she is still well below Biden’s 2020 numbers, leaving Democrats troubled.
The Hill’s Amie Parnes and Rafael Bernal recently admitted Harris is struggling to secure the young Latino vote, a demographic that has been particularly critical of Democrats since Joe Biden became President.
Young Latino men, particularly working-class Latinos, are reluctant to support Harris according to Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist who worked with the Bernie Sanders campaign to target Latinos. Rocha told The Hill, “There is definitely a problem with young Latino men who haven’t gone to college. Trump doing better than he should be doing? Absolutely.”
Does this mean there has been a permanent youth shift away from Democrats? It appears that amidst crushing inflation, stagnant wages, an overrun border, and rising crime, young people may be reflecting on their lives under former President Donald Trump in comparison.
The CNN poll finds Harris holds a modest 12-point lead over Trump among voters under age 35, but that means she is polling nine points below Biden’s 2020 exit poll numbers with this age group.
Harris currently leads Trump 52 percent to 40 percent in the CNN poll, giving her a slightly greater lead than Biden had this spring. However, it is a far slimmer margin than the decisive 21-point lead Biden took in 2020 among young voters.
Overall, while we saw a slight shift toward Harris when Biden announced he would not be seeking reelection after his debate debacle in late June, Harris is now doing no better than Biden was. She is also polling around ten points shy of Biden’s 2020 exit poll numbers.
Even before Biden’s disastrous debate performance and subsequent withdrawal from the race, young voters had been increasingly distancing themselves from Democrats. Right after Harris announced her candidacy, she appeared to be activating at least a portion of young voters, namely young women. However, her numbers have fallen back to where Biden’s were this spring, calling into question whether Democrats have done permanent damage with young people.
The latest New York Times-Siena College poll reveals young voters largely blame Harris for rising costs and the immigration crisis, the two most pressing issues this election. The Times found voters under age 30 say Harris should receive a lot of blame or some blame for the rising costs of basic goods by a 33-point margin. On Immigration, young people say by a 34-point margin Harris is at least partially to blame for the border crisis.
The reality is young voters have been shifting away from Democrats over the past four years due to the Biden Administration’s mishandling of key issues like inflation and immigration, and they do not appear to be sold on Kamala Harris. While Trump outright winning young people is unlikely, he may make sizeable inroads, particularly with young working-class men and voters of color.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
