Democrats Lead Generic Congressional Ballot, Just Like They Did In 2018 And 2006 With Republican In The White House:
https://dailytorch.com/2025/04/democrats-lead-generic-congressional-ballot-just-like-they-did-in-2018-and-2006-with-republican-in-the-white-house/
Don’t look now, but believe it or not, just three months into office, we have already experienced 6 percent of President Donald Trump’s second term. By the end of the year, it will have been 25 percent and in 2026, the country will be once again swept up on the political cycle of periodic elections with the Congressional midterms looming. Right now, the generic Congressional ballot shows Democrats ahead in the national average of polls taken for 2026 compiled by RealClearPolling.com, with Democrats leading 45.8 percent to 44.3 percent. All six of the past six polls taken have shown Democrats leading the race. Even at this early stage — Republicans are still working on their tax cut and border security budget bill for crying out loud — it is in fact not too early to begin polling for the midterms, and sure enough pollsters are already taking up the task. That is because the usual, reliable measure for who’s ahead is the generic Congressional ballot, simply asking voters which party they intend to support in the next round of elections. How reliable? The average of generic Congressional ballot polls all predicted the winner of the 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterm elections and can even predict the rare, unusual event where the White House incumbent party is going to win the midterm elections. In midterm elections dating back to 1906 through 2022, the party that occupied the White House lost seats in the House 27 out of 30 times, or 90 percent of the time, and in years with losses those averaged 34 seats. It was only overcome in 1934, 1998 and 2002, with the Great Depression, Monica Lewinsky and the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks acting as exigent events. Another edge case is 1962, wherein Democrats only lost three seats, and came within weeks of the Cuban Missile Crisis being resolved. The general rule favoring the opposition in midterms is all James Madison’s constitutional scheme of periodic elections, explicitly designed to frustrate the ability of majorities to get things done.
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