According to a new poll from the Associated Press (AP) and NORC at the University of Chicago, public perception of the Democratic Party continues to erode, signaling potentially critical issues for the party in the 2026 midterm election cycle.
The poll, conducted May 1-5 among 1,175 U.S. adults, found a startling lack of confidence in the Democratic Party compared to ten months ago before President Donald Trump won the popular vote and the electoral college — particularly among Democrats.
As of May 2025, only 35 percent of Democrats are optimistic about the party’s future outlook according to the poll, a full 22 points down from AP-NORC polling conducted during the summer of 2024. 36 percent of Democrats are pessimistic about the party’s future, up 10 points since July, and 29 percent aren’t sure, up 13 points since July.
Democrats’ optimism is down significantly from July 2024, during the heat of the presidential election when Democrats were hopeful that Kamala Harris would breathe life back into the party and secure the presidency. According to AP-NORC polling conducted July 25-29, the week Kamala Harris announced her campaign, a full 57 percent of Democrats were optimistic about the party’s future, just 26 percent were pessimistic, and 16 percent weren’t sure.
Democrats have also grown more pessimistic about the state of politics in the country compared to ten months ago, with two-thirds (73 percent) of Democrats expressing pessimism with the state of politics, up thirteen points since July. Democrats are also pessimistic about the way leaders are selected since losing the popular vote and the electoral college in 2024 — 55 percent of Democrats are pessimistic about how leaders are chosen, up 9 points since 2024.
As the DNC’s priorities have become unintelligible and the party has abandoned the middle class in pursuit of a politically self-serving agenda, Democrats have continued to lose support from their once robust base. Young people, Hispanics, and swing voters are all deserting the party in droves as Democrats prioritize fringe issues while fighting against trade, tax, and immigration reforms that serve the middle class.
A poll from Democratic-leaning firm Navigator Research released this spring found that the Democratic Party’s abandonment of the middle class is likely to cost them heavily in the 2026 midterm elections. The survey, conducted across 62 competitive U.S. House districts found voters believe Democrats do not respect the middle class by 14 points, and less than half of voters in battleground districts think Democrats value work itself.
The Navigator poll also found that by 42 percentage points — 69 percent to 27 percent — voters in swing Congressional districts say Democrats are too focused on political correctness. By nine percentage points — 51 percent to 42 percent — voters say Democrats are elitist.
Democrats’ radical ideology and abandonment of America First economic principles are also rapidly escalating losses among young voters. The 50th edition of the Harvard Youth Poll this spring found that approval for Congressional Republicans has remained stable over the past eight years while approval for Congressional Democrats has plummeted nineteen percentage points compared to 2017.
The poll found young voters side with Republicans on cutting taxes, quelling the border crisis, and slashing foreign spending, and believe by 26 points people focus too much on racial issues according to the survey.
On top of this, independent voters — a group whose voting patterns tend to correlate with large cultural shifts and predict the victor in midterm elections – have been shifting away from Democrats at a rapid pace. The Navigator Research data found that while House Republicans have an approval rating that is underwater by 13 points with independents, House Democrats are underwater by a striking 28 points, 62 percent to 34 percent.
Congressional Democrats are sitting at their lowest approval rating in over two and a half decades and are leading the generic congressional ballot by a meager two percentage points — far fewer than they should be as the out-of-power party if they hope to take back control of Congress.
In the face of mounting discontent from their own voters, the Democratic Party is spiraling into an identity crisis. What was once a party that claimed to champion the middle class has morphed into a coalition consumed by elitist posturing, leaving the American people to fend for themselves.
Poll after poll shows the modern Democratic Party losing young voters, independents, and key minority groups while party leaders remain indignant. Swing-district voters say Democrats no longer respect work or value the middle class, and the next generation disagrees with Democrats on taxes, immigration, foreign spending, and identity politics. If Democrats continue to ignore the needs of the American people — lower taxes, a secure border, refocused spending priorities and better trade deals — they may never recover.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
