As inconceivable as it may sound that California Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom — known most for his state’s crippling income tax and totalitarian-style lockdowns during the pandemic — would be a viable option for president in 2028, Newsom appears to be leading in Democratic primary polling. However, there are large constituencies that Newsom is already failing with in national polling, hinting at opportunities for his most likely rival, Vice President JD Vance, to win the presidency in 2028.
Gov. Newsom holds the lead in Democratic primary polling according to the latest Yahoo News/YouGov survey from Sep. 2. Newsom secures 21 percent of the vote among registered Democrats according to the survey. Kamala Harris secures 19 percent of the vote, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez secures 12 percent, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg earns ten percent of the vote. With Newsom leading, it is worth it for conservatives to begin understanding Newsom’s strengths and weaknesses ahead of the next presidential election.
While Newsom has been leading in Democratic primary polling for the past few months, his approval rating is still underwater nationally according to a Sep. 9 Cygnal survey of 1,500 likely voters. Newsom sits at a net approval rating of -5, with 38 percent of Americans approving of the governor while 43 percent disapprove.
Newsom also struggles with several key constituencies that could make it difficult for him to gain traction outside of left-wing states like California. His weakest area of support is among a constituency that has become increasingly pivotal in recent elections — and one that Democrats from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris have struggled to recover. Non-college voters disapprove of Newsom by a resounding 21 points, 48 percent to 27 percent. Harris lost non-college voters by 13 points in 2024, but Democrats have long feared their dwindling appeal to non-college voters, particularly in pivotal battleground states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Swing voters could also present a problem for Gov. Newsom. He is underwater by 12 points, 41 percent to 29 percent, among swing voters. Independents or non-affiliated voters narrowly supported Kamala Harris over President Donald Trump by three points in 2024, 49 percent to 46 percent. A record 43 percent of Americans identify as independent at present, outpacing both Democrats (28 percent) and Republicans (28 percent). Newsom’s lack of appeal to swing voters could jeopardize his chances in 2028, particularly as an increasing share of voters decline to align with either major party.
Another constituency Newsom is struggling with is men, notably college-educated men, who voted for Kamala Harris over President Trump by a single percentage point in 2024, 49 percent to 48 percent according to National Election Pool data. College-educated men disapprove of Newsom 49 percent to 46 percent, indicting Newsom could struggle to win over professional men.
Another challenging constituency for Newsom is highly active voters, or those who have voted in all four recent major elections. Highly active voters have trended left in recent election cycles, as compared to the rightward trajectory of low-propensity voters, but higher propensity voters aren’t sold on Newsom. Newsom’s approval rating is underwater by two points among high-propensity voters, 46 percent to 44 percent.
Black voters, particularly those who are religions, are not entirely sold on Newsom either. The survey found that 16 percent of Black Democrats who attend religious services monthly or more hold an unfavorable view of Newsom, signaling possible issues in early primary states such as South Carolina.
The next presidential election is just over three years away and a great deal can shift before then, but early polling hints at Newsom’s weak spots with key constituencies, particularly non-college voters and independents. If 2028 results in a standoff between Gov. Gavin Newsom and Vice President JD Vance, there is also an opportunity for Vance to increase his margins with highly active voters and religious Black voters according to the survey. Newsom leads the Democratic primary for now, but he has serious deficits as a candidate beyond the liberal coastal states.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
