A comprehensive New York Times survey of likely New York City voters released Sept. 9 is revealing data that could have implications for the future of the city and other urban regions. While the survey was largely conducted to gauge voter support for the candidates in the mayoral race — pitting Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani against independent Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa — it also asked voters to indicate who they supported for president in 2024, and the results are significant.
Overall New York City voters supported Kamala Harris by 40 points, 67 percent to 27 percent according to the survey. However, looking at the results by borough, President Donald Trump performed surprisingly well in diverse regions even in the far-left city.
In Queens, which is around 77 percent non-white with a mix of Asian, Hispanic, and Latino voters, Trump won 35 percent of the vote according to the survey. In the Bronx, which is predominantly Black and Latino, the president earned 28 percent of the vote. In Brooklyn, which includes a combination of African American, Latino, Asian, and other ethnic groups, Trump won 26 percent of the vote.
In other words, not only did President Trump perform at baseline in diverse areas, but he exceeded his citywide performance in diverse boroughs last November. While these results are self-reported votes, the findings are still notable.
The findings are more significant when compared to how New York City voters voted in 2020. In 2020, Biden earned 76 percent of the vote to Trump’s 23 percent, indicating President Trump improved his citywide numbers by four points in 2024.
Borough-level election results show President Trump’s largest increase in support came from the Bronx, where he jumped eleven points between 2020 and 2024. In 2020 President Trump earned 17 percent of the vote in the diverse Bronx, and that rose to 28 percent in 2024. President Trump also gained five points in Queens, going from 30 percent of the vote in 2020 to 35 percent in 2024, and he gained a single point in Brooklyn, going from 25 percent of the vote in 2020 to 26 percent in 2024.
While voters appear on the verge of electing the self-described Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani, crime continues to be a significant concern to city residents and could push them further toward the right in future elections.
The survey shows Mamdani securing 46 percent of the vote in a five-way race that includes Andrew Cuomo (24 percent), Curtis Sliwa (15 percent), Eric Adams (9 percent), and Jim Walden (>1%). However, crime is the number one concern across the city, with 27 percent of voters citing crime as their number one concern, followed by cost of living (26 percent), housing and rent prices (19 percent), and immigration (5 percent). Crime is of particular concern to Bronx voters (33 percent) and Queens voters (32 percent).
Mamdani’s plan to address crime includes an intention to “reduce the jail population” at Riker’s, according to an interview Monday. What is more, his past relations with the police have been tense, with Mamdani calling for defunding the Police Department in the wake of the George Floyd riots. He also called the police, “racist, anti-queer & a major threat to public safety”, in a post on X after the Floyd riots.
If crime is voters’ number one concern, the city may regret electing Mamdani. The same survey shows that voters support increasing police in New York, not reducing the number of officers patrolling the streets. Voters say 66 percent to 32 percent that they support growing the New York City police force by 5,000 additional police officers according to the survey.
New York City may well elect Mamdani, but even in a far-left city, we are seeing voters prioritize reducing crime and witnessing a shift toward the right in diverse neighborhoods throughout the city. New York City is not likely to turn red anytime soon, but the shift toward President Trump in the Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn and the prioritization of crime as a top concern hint at shifting priorities.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
