As the government shutdown standoff reaches its ten-day mark, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on Oct. 9 it “gets better every day” for Democrats.
But Congressional Democrats are losing more than President Donald Trump and Republicans in the court of public opinion, with Democrats being increasingly blamed for the shutdown and the party’s lead in the generic congressional ballot shrinking. Democrats have lost the most support among young voters — dropping ten percentage points with under thirties — and Black and moderate voters, according to new data.
On Thursday, Senate Democrats rejected a House-passed proposal that would have reopened the government, ending the proposal in a 54-45 vote. A separate Democrat-led bill also failed to pass Wednesday.
According to the latest Morning Consult survey, released Oct. 6, Democrats are being increasingly blamed for the government shutdown. While 32 percent of voters blamed Democrats for the shutdown at the end of September, that number has jumped six percentage points over the past week to 38 percent. Slightly more voters, 43 percent, currently blame Republicans for the shutdown, but that number has fallen two points since September. Blame for Republicans has remained relatively stable — and even fallen — while blame for Democrats has jumped substantially over the past week.
The Morning Consult survey also shows that while President Donald Trump and Republicans have held onto their approval ratings since the shutdown began, Congressional Democrats saw their approval rating plummet five percentage points over the past week.
In late September, Democrats held a 3.6 percentage point lead in the generic Congressional ballot against Republicans, but that lead has dropped to 2.9 percentage points according to the latest Real Clear Polling average.
Comparing generic Congressional ballot data from the Economist/YouGov survey from Sept. 29 before the government shutdown began to Oct. 6, reveals a significant drop-off for Democrats among young voters. Last month, 50 percent of young votes planned to vote for the Democratic candidate in the generic Congressional ballot, but this week only 40 percent do, a ten-percentage point decline since the shutdown began. Democrats also saw a five-point decline since the shutdown began among voters in the 30-44 age range. 42 percent of Millennials planned to support the Democratic candidate before the shutdown, and that fell to 37 percent this week. The share of young people planning to support the Republican candidate rose by a single percentage point for both groups over the same period.
Another group that has made a rapid U-turn away from the Democratic ticket since the shutdown began? Moderates. Before the shutdown, 41 percent of moderates planned to support the Democratic candidate, but that number dropped seven percentage points to 34 percent this week. The share of moderates planning to support the GOP candidate also fell, but by just two points.
Black voters are also dropping their support for Democrats due to the shutdown, with Democrats losing seven percentage points among Black voters over the past week. In late September, 70 percent of Black voters planned to support a Democratic candidate, but that fell to 63 percent this week.
Ten days into the government shutdown, an increasing share of the public are blaming Democrats for the federal government coming to a halt. The share of voters blaming Democrats for the shutdown jumped six points in just over a week, and Congressional Democrats’ approval rating dropped five points since the shutdown. Young voters, moderates and Black voters have all reduced their support for Democrats in the past week. While Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer remarked that the shutdown gets better “every day” for Democrats, the data does not appear to support that.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
