Democrats’ Lead In 2026 Congressional Ballot Shrinks To Lowest Since May Amid Shutdown And President Trump’s Mideast Peace Deal

By Manzanita Miller

Democrats’ lead in the generic Congressional ballot is at the lowest point it has been since late May, with Democrats holding onto a meager 1.7 percentage point lead, down from 3.3 points just two weeks ago. These past two weeks have included Congressional Democrats shutting the government down, bringing services to a halt over refusal to let go of taxpayer subsidies for illegal aliens, and arguably the largest step forward for peace in the Middle East this century with the adoption of President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza and the return of all living Israeli hostages.   

According to Real Clear Polling’s average, Congressional Democrats’ lead in the generic Congressional ballot has fallen to just 1.7 percentage points, down from 3.3 points on Oct. 1, and the smallest lead for Democrats since May 21. Democrats lead Republicans by less than two percentage points in the latest round of polling, with 44.5 percent of voters planning to support Democrats in 2026 and 42.8 percent planning to support Republicans. The last time Democrats led Republicans by less than 1.7 points was on May 21, when Democrats led by a single point, 45.6 percent to 44.6 percent.  

Among the issues encapsulated in the latest round of polling that sees Democrats losing a significant amount of ground in the generic Congressional ballot is President Donald Trump’s massive peace deal victory in the Middle East, and the government shutdown, which an increasing share of the electorate blames Democrats for.

An Economist/YouGov survey released Oct. 13, the day after all living Israeli hostages were returned home safely, shows strong support for the president’s 20-point plan for peace in the Middle East, which includes a ceasefire, the return of all Israeli hostages, an interim government for Gaza without the influence of Hamas, and economic development for the region.

Voters say 46 points — 53 percent to seven percent — that they support President Trump’s Israel-Hamas peace deal. Republicans support the peace deal by 66 points, 70 percent to four percent, and independents support the deal by 41 points, 47 percent to six percent. Even Harris voters approve of the deal by 41 points, 51 percent to 10 percent, and Democrats approve of the deal by 34 points, 44 percent to 10 percent.    

Then there is the government shutdown, which the mainstream media and Congressional Democrats attempted to blame Republicans for, but polling shows Democrats are the ones who’ve lost favorability — and their 3.3 percentage point lead in the generic Congressional ballot — since the shutdown began.  

According to a Morning Consult survey, released Oct. 6, the share of voters blaming Democrats for the government shutdown increased within the first week of the shutdown. While 32 percent of voters blamed Democrats for the shutdown at the end of September, that number jumped six percentage points to 38 percent a week into the shutdown. Slightly more voters, 43 percent, blamed Republicans for the shutdown, but that number fell two points since September.

The latest Economist/YouGov survey also shows that over just the past seven days, the share of Americans blaming Democrats for the shutdown has risen three percentage points, from 30 percent on Oct. 6 to 33 percent on Oct. 13.   

In one week, the share of women blaming Democrats for the shutdown rose seven percentage points, going from 24 percent to 31 percent. The share of moderates and independents blaming Democrats rose substantially over the past week as well. Seventeen percent of moderates and independents blamed Democrats for the shutdown on Oct. 6, but that number rose to 26 percent for both groups by Oct. 13.  

While the midterms are still months away, Democrats are rapidly losing ground as President Donald Trump’s historic peace deal takes effect, and as Congressional Democrats hold the government hostage until their healthcare-for-illegals funds are included in a deal. Democrats are even reluctant to give President Trump credit for the historic Middle East peace deal, a reality that could cost them goodwill among independents and moderates next year.  

Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.