The races for governor in Virginia and New Jersey are tightening as the Nov. 4 election approaches, as are lieutenant governor and attorney general races in Virginia according to the latest flurry of surveys.
In the Virginia governor race, Democrat Rep. Abigail Spanberger sits at a seven-point-lead over GOP challenger Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears two weeks out from the election. Spanberger leads Earle-Sears 49 percent to 42 percent in the latest Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) poll released Oct. 21. While this is a substantial lead for Spanberger, her lead has dropped nine percentage points since September, indicating just how tight the Virginia race is becoming as election day nears.
While Spanberger maintains a significant — if narrowing — lead over Earle-Sears in the governor race, Virginia’s race for lieutenant governor has Democrat Sen. Ghazala Hashmi and Republican John Reid in a dead heat. Hashmi leads Reid by a single percentage point, 44 percent to 43 percent according to the VCU poll.  Â
In a swift turn of events, Republicans appear more likely to win the Virginia attorney general race than they did in September, with Republican Jason Miyares taking a three-point lead over Democrat Jay Jones after trailing Jones by six points in the September poll. Miyares now leads Jones 45 percent to 42 percent, after trailing him 41 percent to 47 percent in September according to VCU polling. Â
Jay Jones has been heavily criticized after text messages surfaced from 2022, in which the Democratic nominee for attorney general told a Republican lawmaker Delegate Carrie Coyner over text message he wished there would be “two bullets” in the head of the Republican leader of the House of Delegates, Todd Gilbert. It is after those text messages surfaced in early October that Jones’ support appears to have declined substantially. Whether the violent, politically charged texts from the Democratic nominee end up costing him the attorney general position remain to be seen, but Virginians are understandably wary of placing more power into the hands of a man who uses vile and violent rhetoric about his political opponents.
In New Jersey, a state that swung ten percentage points toward President Donald Trump in 2024, the governor race is also tightening. Two recent polls show the race narrowing substantially compared to a few months ago, with the latest KAConsulting survey cited by Newsweek on Oct. 21 showing Democrat Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by a narrow three percentage points, 47 percent to 44 percent. Â
A Quinnipiac University survey from Oct. 15 showed a wider lead for Sherrill, with 50 percent of voters supporting her compared to 44 percent supporting Ciattarelli.
Both surveys show Sherrill’s once substantial lead has narrowed over the past four months. A Jul. 29 Fairleigh Dickinson University poll found Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by eight points, 45 percent to 37 percent, with 16 percent undecided. Ciattarelli has made substantial ground against Sherrill since early July, when he trailed her by twenty points in a Jul. 2 Rutgers-Eagleton poll.
New Jersey is undergoing a power rebalancing, with voters showing signs of embracing more conservative approaches to issues like taxes and affordability as well as President Donald Trump’s America First priorities. In 2024, New Jersey swung ten percentage points toward President Trump, with Trump losing the state to Harris by just six percentage points after ceding it to Biden by sixteen points in 2020. The narrow lead Democrat Mikie Sherrill holds over Jack Ciattarelli indicate a significant opportunity for conservatives among New Jersey swing voters and moderates. Â
The New Jersey governor race and the Virginia governor race, lieutenant governor race, and attorney general race, are all narrowing, perhaps an early indicator of a contentious midterm election cycle in 2026. What the current races in Virginia and New Jersey do not indicate, is a slam-dunk for the Democratic Party’s agenda despite widespread Democratic protest against President Donald Trump’s America First priorities, including shutting down the federal government for over three weeks and counting. If anything, Democrats are continuing to face challenges drumming up voter enthusiasm, and their own alarming sense of righteous political violence and willingness to shutter the federal government until they get their way are further isolating them from moderate and swing voters. Â
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
