Over the past month, which has included President Trump promising a sweeping overhaul of the green card process after a National Guard member was shot and killed in Washington, D.C., and the federal government reopening as the unpopular government shutdown ended, President Trump has seen a rise in his approval rating among swing voters. Â
President Trump’s approval rating is still below 44 percent according to the latest Real Clear Polling average, largely due to negative perceptions about inflation and the job market, but his approval rating is creeping back up compared to a few weeks ago. Trump’s approval rating clocks in at almost 44 percent (43.9 percent), after stagnating around 42 percent for the past month. Â
Trump’s approval rating has seen a modest but meaningful turnaround among moderates (+10 points), voters under age 30 (+8 points), women (+5 points), independents (+5 points), and Hispanics (+4 points) since driving home a strong border security message, calling for a review of childhood vaccine recommendations, and reopening the federal government. While polling numbers shift rapidly, it is worth noting where Trump may be gaining ground with swing voters ahead of the midterm cycle. Â
Four weeks ago, the federal government was finally reopening after a deeply unpopular 43-day shutdown that had many government services from air traffic control to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) under threat. Republicans had just received a wakeup call that suggested the midterm cycle could be especially challenging, with Democrats sweeping the Virginia and New Jersey Governor races, and New York City electing its first Democratic Socialist mayor.
Since then, the Trump Administration has been driving home a strong border security message, with the Administration boasting the lowest number of illegal encounters on the southern border in half a century. President Trump also reacted swiftly to the tragic events of November 26th, when two National Guard members were shot, reportedly by an Afghan national. President Trump promised to vet the green card and asylum process and enacted a ban on applications from unstable nations. The Administration is also doubling down on its commitment to childhood health, with Trump ordering a review of the U.S. vaccine schedule which many Americans believe is overly extensive compared to the rest of the developed world. Â
These issues appear to be giving rise to a modest but meaningful increase in approval for President Trump. Comparing polling from the Economist/YouGov from Nov. 24 to polling from Dec. 15, President Trump’s approval rating has inched up, and gained momentum with swing voters. Trump’s overall approval rating has gained four points overall according to the survey, going from 38 percent the week before Thanksgiving to 42 percent as of Dec. 15.   Â
Trump’s approval rating has risen significantly among moderate voters as shutdown fears have receded, with the president’s approval rating rising ten points over the past three weeks, going from 27 percent to 37 percent. President Trump also gained eight points with voters age 18-29 during the same period, going from 29 percent to 37 percent.
Women and independents are also backing Trump at a higher rate than they were three weeks ago, with President Trump’s approval rating among women rising five points from 31 percent to 36 percent. His approval rating is up five points with independents as well, going from 27 percent to 32 percent over the past three weeks. President Trump also received a four-point bump from Latinos since Nov. 24, with his approval rating rising from 34 percent to 38 percent.
The reopening of the federal government and the Trump Administration’s focus on domestic issues such as border security and health issues, appear to be boosting President Trump’s approval rating particularly among moderate and independent voters, young people and women, and Latino voters.
While a persistently high unemployment rate that skyrocketed under President Joe Biden and has yet to recede is still driving down President Trump’s approval rating, there are signs of improvement. Economic issues, including persistent unemployment and inflation, have been dragging down the president’s approval rating all year and will play a significant role in whether the GOP loses substantially in the House in 2026. That said, there are signs President Trump’s other domestic accomplishments, including strict immigration enforcement and focus on improving national health, are making an impact in his approval rating among swing voters.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
