By Bill Wilson
As everyone in the political sphere begins setting their sights on the Congressional midterm elections at the end of the year, a very timely warning to the GOP has already come from Virginia. Yes, we all know the “top lines.” Democrats won all three statewide races and captured 13 seats in the House of Delegates to hand them a level of control – 64 to 36 – they have not held since 1987!
A blowout? Of course, there are no other words for it. But the mechanics of this surge is important to understand. Only an honest appraisal of the disaster can serve Republicans and conservatives this year and beyond.
After reviewing all 13 “flipped” districts, it is crystal clear how the Democrats pulled this off. It had nothing to do with anything other than the basics.
In all 13 districts, the Democrats saw huge increases in voter turnout. While this was obviously helped by the anti-Trump fever suffered by many on the left, it does not explain the patterns that can be seen. By looking at each precinct in the 13 districts, comparing the number of votes for each party in 2023 vs. 2025 and checking registration figures, it becomes plain that a very well organized and planned turnout operation was in place.
Simply put, the Democrats targeted where their voters were and then worked to turnout as many as they could. So, while we see Democrat-voting precincts having large increases in the number of voters, a precinct literally next door did not. So, in one district that is split between Democrats and Republicans, the Democrats won the seat by seeing massive turnout in their base in Petersburg City while turnout of the three GOP-leaning counties was flat. Result? A Democrat flip.
The most common element was turnout but in a number of places huge increases in registered voters were also employed. The most apparent case of this was in District 41 where two counties make up the district. The Republican one, Roanoke, saw virtually no increase in registration. But in Democrat Montgomery County there were large increases but only in precincts that historically vote to the left. Again, the result was a Democrat flip.
While all of this was going on from the Democrats, what was the program of the “professional” Republicans? A sad and predictable set of actions. When it comes to turnout, they simply pushed to “get every Republican to vote.” But that overlooks the fact that upwards to half of the voters don’t identify with either of the parties. If you want additional votes you have to go for the “low propensity” voters. That did not happen in Virginia in 2025, even though it is arguably how President Trump succeeded nationwide the year before.
Why? Why did the GOP fail, or more accurately refuse, to engage low propensity voters? The reason is the sad truth is that to do so requires the discussion of issues that the old-line GOP, Inc. crowd does not want raised. Not once did the GOP or their statewide candidate raise the issue of illegal immigrants. Not once did they attack the Democrats’ promise to turn Virginia into another festering sanctuary state, which it already is thanks to Virginia Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s executive actions taken as soon as she was sworn in. Not once did they use the highly effective issues of Democrat dysfunction during the Biden regime or the insanity that can be viewed in the Democrat-Left strongholds, places like Portland, Oregon or Seattle or virtually any city in California.
They refused and instead fell back on the social issue of the transgender radicals. While most people oppose this and it is true that the Democrat standard bearer and now Gov. Spanberger is very radical on this issue, it is apparently not an issue that moves that many people. While the mainstream media and the propaganda mills want people to think it is a major issue, it is not. Illegal immigration and the harmful impact it is having on American families is. But that is not an agenda item for the “me-too” Republicanism of the people who controlled the Virginia GOP.
The GOP approach was to turnout those they knew were Republican. And they did achieve that. In most cases the Republican candidate did get as many or a few more votes that what they had gathered in 2023. But, so what? It didn’t win a thing.
So, on all counts — failure to register new voters in specific areas, turnout operations that looked beyond the known GOP and refusal to employ issues that had motivated large numbers of voters in 2024, the Virginia Republican campaign failed miserably.
And that is the warning to everyone who wants to see the MAGA movement continue to grow and America to flourish in the coming years.
The Democrats in Virginia have given a playbook on how to win and win big. It is not rocket science and it is not “cheating.” It is based on hard work and measurable goals. If the GOP structure will learn from it, 2026 can be another good year of beating the odds. But, if they fall back on their normal grift and pretend approach, then look for a defeat on the scale of 1964 when one of the largest Democrat majorities in modern history took office.
Bill Wilson is the former president of Americans for Limited Government.
