While President Trump’s approval rating remains underwater due largely to negative sentiment about the speed of the economic recovery, there are signs the president’s approval could bounce back, and one new poll shows his approval rating moving into the positive. Democrats are beginning the year with a 3.9 percentage point lead in the generic congressional ballot, but that lead is smaller than it was at the beginning of the last two midterm cycles in 2022 and 2018.
First, a new Trafalgar poll of 1,098 likely voters released Dec. 27 shows President Trump’s net approval rating sitting at 5.6 percentage points, with 50.2 approving while 44.6 disapprove. The survey is an outlier, with the latest Real Clear Polling average placing Trump’s net approval rating at -9.9 percentage points, but the president’s approval rating is moving upward.
On Nov. 21, just two weeks after the GOP lost both the Virginia and New Jersey Governor races, President Trump’s approval rating was -13.1 percentage points. With his current net approval rating hovering around -9.9 percentage points, he has improved just over three percentage points since late November.
Polling from The Economist/YouGov from Dec. 26-29 shows that President Trump’s approval rating has risen modestly since Nov. 21-24 among moderates, women, and voters earning less than $50K annually.
President Trump has gained four points with moderates since Nov. 24, going from 27 percent approval to 31 percent. He has also gained four points with women, going from 31 percent approval to 35 percent. President Trump also gained four points with voters earning less than $50K, going from 34 percent approval to 38 percent, according to the survey. This indicates a modest turnaround among working-class voters and swing voters that could pose a challenge to Democrats.
Democrats hold a 3.9 percentage-point lead in the latest generic congressional ballot data from Real Clear Polling, with 46 percent of voters planning to support a Democrat for Congress in the midterm cycle while 42.1 percent plan to support a Republican. This lead has widened slightly since November but remains modest compared to early spring polls from the previous two midterm cycles.
In the first three months of 2018, Democrats were ahead in generic congressional ballot by an average of six percentage points, with one McClatchy/Marist poll showing Democrats ahead by nine points. Looking at the first few months of 2022, Democrats where ahead by 6.7 percentage points.
Democrats have incrementally gained in the generic congressional ballot since mid-2025, with data from July 10 showing Democrats ahead by only 2.4 percentage points. That said, Democrats have yet to eke out a strong lead that indicates a repeat of the 2018 midterm cycle — yet.
Despite negative perceptions of the cost of living presenting a serious challenge for Republicans in the midterm cycle, Democrats are at peak unfavourability. The latest YouGov tracker finds Democrats underwater by a historic 30.1 percentage points, with 64 percent of Americans disapproving of the party, while 33.9 approve. Among swing voters, those numbers are even worse. Democrats’ favorable rating among independents is underwater by a startling 47 percentage points, with 71 percent of independents disapproving of Democrats while 24 percent approve.
While the Democrat Party tends to rely heavily on the female vote, women could pose a challenge in 2026. The Democratic Party’s approval rating is underwater by close to 20 percentage points with women, 57 percent to 29 percent. This is the highest the party’s disapproval rating has climbed among female voters since YouGov started tracking the data in 2017. In January of 2018 for example, Democrats were underwater with women by five points. In January of 2022, Democrats were underwater with women by four points. In April of last year, Democrats were underwater by ten points with women, but that number has climbed to 18 points.
Republicans are on defense as the party in power in the White House and Congress, and negative economic perceptions are driving President Trump’s lagging approval ratings and Democrats’ lead in the generic congressional ballot. That said, the Democratic Party’s approval rating is at a record low, and swing voters — including women and independents — are particularly critical of Democrats heading into the midterm cycle.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
