New polling from the New York Times has been circulating that shows Democrats ahead in the generic congressional ballot, and the poll has been used to claim that the Trump coalition of young, minority, and swing voters that have been moving toward the right for a decade is evaporating. The survey does show a slight contraction in support for a generic Republican candidate among young and Hispanic voters compared to support for President Trump in 2024. However, the survey largely continues to show a hollowing out of support for Democrats among swing voters. Support has not risen for Democrats among swing voters compared to the 2022 midterms or the 2018 midterms, but has continued to erode.
The Jan. 22 poll of 1,625 registered voters shows Democrats ahead of Republicans by five points, 48 percent to 43 percent, which is similar to the spread other generic congressional ballot surveys show and is not a surprise. The claim that swing voters are shifting back toward Democrats is much more nuanced and needs to be looked at over the past decade.
The mainstream media has been relentless in assuring liberals that the Republican Latino coalition is crumbling, but that doesn’t hold up according to the survey. Latinos plan to support a generic Democrat in November by sixteen points, 52 percent to 36 percent, according to the Times poll.
That is a smaller margin of victory for Democrats over Republicans with Latinos by five points compared to 2022 exit polls. In 2022, Democrats won Latinos by 21 points, 60 percent to 39 percent. Democrats’ margin of victory is projected to shrink by five points, and their share of the vote is projected to shrink by eight points compared to 2022. Yes, Republicans’ share of the vote is also projected to shrink, but by only three points.
Looking at the Latino vote compared to the 2018 midterm paints an even bleaker picture for Democrats. Democrats won Latinos by 40 points — 69 percent to 29 percent — just eight years ago under President Donald Trump’s first term. Now, Democrats will be lucky if they can win Latinos by only sixteen points. If the Times poll’s predictions play out in the midterms — and we all know the many errors in attempting to predict voter patterns particularly among lower propensity voters — Democrats will win Latinos by 24 points less in 2026 than they did in 2018. That is far, far from a recovery for Democrats.
Will Republicans win less Latinos than Trump did in 2024? Trump lost Latinos by a narrow nine-point margin in 2024, 54 percent to 45 percent. If the Times poll is correct, Republicans will lose Latinos by sixteen points this fall. This isn’t good for the GOP but it is not unexpected this early in the midterm cycle, with a generic no-name Republican on the ballot and Republicans as the party in power in the White House and Congress.
What is more, Democrats are still projected to win Latinos by five points less than they did in 2022 and by 24 points less than they did in 2018. The Trump coalition may be contracting moderately without President Trump on the ballot compared to the 2024 blowout victory for conservatives, but conservatives are still up — by a lot — with Latinos compared to past elections.
Among Black voters, the numbers for Democrats are equally concerning. The Times poll shows 19 percent of Black voters intend to support a generic Republican in the midterm cycle, while less than three-quarters (74 percent) plan to support a Democrat. This gives Democrats a projected margin of victory of 55 points, a historically meager margin.
In 2022, Democrats held a 73-percentage-point margin of victory over Republicans, winning 86 percent of the Black vote to the GOP’s 13 percent. If the Times poll proves to be accurate, Democrats’ margin of victory with Black voters will shrink by 18 percentage points in November compared to 2022.
Compared to the 2018 midterm cycle, these numbers are much worse. Democrats won Black voters by 81 points in 2018, 90 percent to just nine percent. If the Times poll plays out as projected, Democrats’ margin of victory with Black voters will shrink by 26 percentage points this fall.
In raw share of the vote, that represents Democrats taking home 90 percent of the vote just eight years ago, and being projected to win 74 percent now. The GOP meanwhile, is projected to take home 19 percent of the vote, up from nine percent eight years ago. Do those numbers sound like a reversal of the inroads President Donald Trump has made with Black voters?
Black voters are one group that appears to be even more motivated to vote Republican this November than they were in the 2024 election. While the Times poll projects Democrats winning the Black vote by just 55 points in November, Kamala Harris won it by 70 points, 84 percent to 14 percent in 2024. Even without President Trump drawing increasing shares of the Black vote, Black Americans appear to be parting ways with Democrats at a rapid pace.
Surely young voters are departing the Trump coalition? Not exactly. The Times poll shows just 58 percent of voters 18-29 planning to support a generic Democrat in the midterms, down from 63 percent in 2022, a five-point decline. Overall, the data shows Democrats winning voters under 30 by 27 points, which is the same exact margin they won them by in 2022. Democrats haven’t won back a coalition of young voters since 2022, despite having every opportunity to challenge President Donald Trump and the GOP-controlled House as the party out of power in Washington.
The Democrat Party’s projected 27-point margin of victory among young voters is concerning when looking at how much they used to win the youth vote by. Democrats won young voters by 35 points just eight years ago, 67 percent to 32 percent. They are now looking at a lower margin of victory by eight points compared to 2018.
One concession on the youth voter front. If the poll’s projections are accurate, Democrats could up their margin of victory with young people compared to the 2024 election — but not compared to the 2022 or 2018 cycles. With President Donald Trump on the ballot against the highly unpopular Kamala Harris, Trump lost young voters by a historically small margin for a Republican in 2024, just 11 percentage points. Democrats have gained zero ground with young voters since 2022, despite having every opportunity to weaponize the economy in their favor. What is more, Democrats are still projected to win young voters by eight points less than they did in 2018.
What an objective review of the data shows is that while there has been a modest contraction among some elements of the Trump coalition — young and Hispanic voters — compared to the historic numbers President Donald Trump won in 2024, the GOP is still projected to win significantly larger shares than it has in past elections.
Among Black voters, the GOP is projected to outperform all recent modern cycles if the polling projections are correct. When looking back over the past eight years, the trajectory for swing voters has been decidedly away from the Democrat Party, not toward it. Will there be a contraction compared to the historic 2024 election? Possibly, but it is not unexpected considering it is an off-year election without Trump on the ballot and with Republicans in power in the White House and Congress. Overall, even with a generic GOP candidate on the ballot for an election ten months out, Republicans are holding up better than expected with key factions of the Trump coalition.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
