The latest New York Times survey shows Republicans hanging on to their gains with minority and young voters compared to the past two midterm cycles and on track to win an historic 19 percent of black voters in November, but there are still warning signs Republicans need to consider ahead of the midterms.
A larger share of whites and men, groups that are natural allies to Republicans, are saying they are uncommitted compared to how they felt in Oct. 2024, before the presidential election. While both groups largely support Republicans and strongly favor President Donald Trump’s approach to immigration, concerns over the handling of foreign wars like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the rising costs of healthcare, and the economy overall appear to still be taking a toll on voters’ outlook.
Republicans can get ahead of these issues by educating the American people on when they can expect a break-even point on inflation and wages not projected until about mid-2027, reinforcing a commitment to the President’s America First foreign policy, and attacking healthcare costs at the root cause as President Trump has encouraged through the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement.
What conservatives need to know is that while commitment to supporting a Republican congressional candidate in November has declined among men and white voters — core demographics that favor President Trump’s 2016 and 2024 victories — it is not because Democrats are picking up their votes. A larger share of white and male voters now say they don’t know how they plan to vote, and appear to be on the fence because of economic and foreign policy concerns.
Comparing the recent New York Times poll conducted Jan. 12-17 with the Times poll conducted two weeks before the 2024 election, 54 percent of whites were committed to supporting President Donald Trump then, but 50 percent are committed to supporting a Republican for Congress in November, a four-point decline.
To be clear, there has been zero increase in support for Democrats among white voters. Two weeks before the 2024 election just 43 percent of whites were committed to supporting Kamala Harris, and in the recent poll 43 percent are committed to voting for a Democrat in November.
Where the shift has occurred among white voters is among undecided voters. Eight percent of white voters say they don’t know which party they’ll support in November, up from just three percent in the weeks before the 2024 election. The four-point decline in commitment to supporting a GOP candidate is attributable to white voters saying they aren’t sure how they’ll vote.
So, which issues are giving these voters pause, and why might they be on the fence? According to the Times survey, white voters support President Donald Trump strongly on domestic issues like border security and the deportation of illegal immigrants but hesitate to support him on certain foreign policy issues and show continued concern on inflation and affordability.
President Trump’s strongest issue among white voters is his commitment to border security and deporting illegal aliens. White voters strongly support Trump’s handling of the border between the U.S. and Mexico by thirteen points, 55 percent to 42 percent. White voters also support the president’s deportation of illegal aliens by eleven points, 54 percent to 43 percent.
However, white voters are skeptical on some foreign policy moves, only narrowly supporting the U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro by two points, 48 percent to 46 percent and narrowly disapproving of the way President Trump has handled the Israeli Palestinian conflict by a single point, 46 percent to 45 percent.
On foreign relations in general white voters disapprove of the way President Trump has handled relationships with other countries by nine points, 54 percent to 45 percent. White voters also disapprove of the way President Trump has handled the Russia-Ukraine conflict by ten points, 52 percent to 42 percent.
It should be noted that Americans still trust Republicans over Democrats on most major issues, including the economy by three points, foreign policy by four points, trade by six points, and immigration and national security by nine points each according to a Morning Consult survey from Jan. 16-18.
Then there is the lingering affordability debacle. As an Americans for Limited Government Foundation analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows, with consumer inflation at its current level growing 2.7 percent the last twelve months and nominal average weekly earnings growing 3.75 percent, the break-even point from the Biden-era inflation will not occur until about mid-2027.
White voters understand the economy is still recovering from Biden-era inflation, saying by twelve points, 42 percent to 29 percent, that the biggest issues facing the economy were created by Joe Biden not President Trump. However, they are still concerned about affordability, particularly in the housing and healthcare industries.
The largest share of white voters, 23 percent, say they are most concerned about affording housing. White voters are also disproportionately concerned about healthcare affordability. Nearly one-in-five (19 percent) of white voters say the cost of healthcare is the expense they are most concerned about affording, compared to 13 percent of Black voters and eight percent of Hispanics.
Republicans are also facing similar issues with men. Comparing the recent Times poll with Times polling conducted two weeks before the 2024 election, 55 percent of men were committed to supporting President Trump before the 2024 election, but 47 percent are committed to supporting a GOP candidate for Congress. That is an eight-point decline in commitment to a Republican candidate compared to 2024. Men have similar economic concerns and are more supportive than whites of President Trump’s foreign policy moves according to the survey.
To be clear — just like with white voters there has been absolutely no increase in support for Democrats among men. Two weeks before the 2024 election, 41 percent of men said they would support Kamala Harris, and in the recent Times survey the same number said they planned to support a Democrat in November. Just like with white voters, a larger share of men are uncommitted to either party. Twelve percent of men say they don’t know which party they’ll support, compared to only five percent two weeks before the 2024 election.
Similarly, dissatisfaction with the speed of the economic recovery and concerns over foreign policy appear to be driving hesitation for some white voters and men. That said, both groups are aware that inflation skyrocketed under Joe Biden, and there is no evidence either group prefers a Democrat approach to tackling either issue — but it does show areas where the GOP needs to shore up its base if they hope to do well in November in the Congressional midterms.
The election is ten months out and a lot can change in that time. A portion of voters who say they are undecided now are expected to make up their minds closer to the election even if that choice is to sit out the midterms. Despite saying they are on the fence neither men or white voters have shown increased support for Democrats. To persuade these groups, conservatives need to continue to set expectations for when voters can expect to feel relief from Biden-era inflation. Second, conservatives would be wise to continue addressing the rising cost of healthcare, including a continued focus on President Trump’s MAHA movement to identify and reduce the root causes of illness. Lastly, candidates in 2026 needs to reassure voters they are committed to the President’s America First foreign policy and ending wars that drain U.S. resources.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
