While Democrats are holding a 4.6-point lead in the generic congressional ballot — largely due to the fact that the breakeven point for when most Americans will feel an easing of inflation won’t be until late-2026 — there are signs voters aren’t happy with the Democratic Party’s radical trajectory. As Democrats have rallied around radical activists and called for abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), they have been losing support from swing voters, including women, minorities, and young people. Swing voters are increasingly identifying as independents instead of Democrats according to an Americans for Limited Government Analysis of New York Times polling data.
In recent months, Democrats have rallied around activist criminals, called for defunding of ICE, and elected a socialist mayor in New York City, and those actions are causing swing voters to reconsider.
A new survey from CNN released Feb. 12 reveals that the majority of Americans — 58 percent — now say the Democratic Party is “too liberal”. This was not always the case, according to CNN data from 2013 referenced by CNN’s Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten, just 48 percent of Americans believed the Democratic Party was “too liberal” under President Obama. Remember, this was a time when the Democratic Party was so unpopular it gave rise to the Tea Party movement. Now, distaste with the direction of the Democratic Party is even more widespread.
“The Democrats are moving to the left, the far left is gaining power, and there could be some electoral repercussions because what we see right now is voters, the clear majority, say that they are too liberal”, Enten told anchor Kate Bolduan on Feb. 12.
This rise in concern over the Democratic Party’s leftward march comes as Democrats are rallying around candidates that are most accurately described as socialists and communists in several cases. There are already hints that Democrats will be running, and rallying around, radical-leftwing activists in the midterm elections. How that will play out in the general election could be very different.
Look no further than New Jersey’s special election held Feb. 5 to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill in the 11th District. Left-wing activist Analilia Mejia beat Democrat challenger Tom Malinowski by 1.7 points in the special election, though there is no guarantee she won’t be challenged in the June primary.
Mejia describes herself in an ad as an “organizer” and ran with support from left-wing heavyweights like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Among Mejia’s positions include a call to abolish ICE, strip ICE of the $75 billion allotted to immigration enforcement in The Big Beautiful Bill and raise minimum wage.
A few months earlier, Democrat socialist Zohran Mamdani upset the New York City mayoral race and collected just over 50 percent of the vote, staging a coup against former Democratic governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa. While Mandani was initially celebrated as a progressive icon, after recent reports surfaced about massive trash piles accumulating in the streets and tens of thousands of residents left without heating during winter storms, Mamdani is being viewed with skepticism.
As Democrats appear to be increasingly rallying around socialist and activist candidates, there is increasing evidence that they are driving away voters in the center, who are becoming increasingly independent.
An Americans for Limited Government Foundation analysis of New York Times survey data from Jan. 12-17 compared to a Times survey released two weeks before the 2024 election shows steep declines in swing voters identifying as Democrats.
Less than half of registered Black voters (48 percent) now identity as Democrats, down fifteen-points in the past fourteen months. The share of Latinos identifying as Democrat has declined a full twelve points over the past fourteen months, from 46 percent identifying as Democrat in Oct. 2024 to just 34 percent identifying as Democrat now. Democrats have also lost ground with women, white-college educated voters, and Gen Z and millennials, according to the data.
The Democratic Party is repeatedly caving to the most radical factions of the far left, and they are increasingly seen by swing voters as too far to the left. The fact that Democrats are holding a 4.6-point lead in the generic congressional ballot is largely due to voters’ persistent belief that inflation is still too high, despite inflation easing and wages picking up in January. Americans for Limited Government Foundation moved up its predicted break-even point for when Americans are likely to feel relief from Biden-era inflation from mid-2027 to late-2026. With an exit from Biden-era inflation on the horizon, it is possible Republicans can blunt the midterm effect. Swing voters don’t want to support radical leftist candidates, and if Democrats run these candidates in the primaries they may regret it in the general election.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
