President Donald Trump has had his share of recent setbacks in terms of his approval rating, with the latest Real Clear Polling average placing him underwater by 13.4 percentage points. President Trump has also lost support from Black voters over the past month, a group that was beginning to shift toward the GOP as the economy has improved. After sharing a video on Truth Social of Former President Obama that voters found offensive, President Trump went from an 18 percent approval rating among Black voters in the Economist/YouGov survey from Jan. 30 – Feb. 2, to just 11 percent approval in the latest survey from Feb. 20 – 23.
These setbacks complicate a midterm election year already marked by a slowly improving economic mood and a landscape that has Republicans occupying the White House and Congress. However, with the new breakeven point for exiting Biden-era inflation having been moved up to later this year instead of mid-2027, Republicans may have a chance to blunt their losses in November. Another positive sign that could have long-reaching implications is the tentative shift of college-educated voters back toward the GOP.
College-educated voters, particularly women, are showing signs of moving back toward Republicans in recent surveys. While it is unlikely college-educated women will favor Republicans over Democrats in November, there has been a double-digit shift over the past three months toward favoring a GOP candidate. The primary driver for college-educated voters, and women in in particular, appears to be the GOP’s approach to crime and public safety as well as illegal immigration.
A Feb. 10 survey of likely midterm voters from Cygnal, an independent polling group, shows Congressional Republicans lead Democrats across a slate of issues, and Republicans eke out their widest leads on law-and-order issues. Republicans lead Democrats on both illegal immigration/border security and crime/public safety by thirteen points.
Cygnal’s survey shows college-educated voters have moved a full ten percentage points toward supporting a generic Republican candidate over a generic Democrat candidate in the midterm cycle since December.
College-educated women have moved eleven points toward supporting a generic Republican over a Democrat.
The Democratic Party’s inaction on crime appears to be the biggest catalyst driving college-educated women toward the GOP according to Cygnal’s data. College-educated women have shifted nine points toward trusting the GOP more than Democrats on crime since September, going from 31 percent to 40 percent.
College-educated women represent the largest shift toward trusting the GOP more on crime, but Hispanics and swing voters have each shifted seven points toward the GOP as well.
According to Cygnal, college-educated women have also moved toward Republicans on handling illegal immigration. College-educated women have moved four points toward trusting the GOP over Democrats on illegal immigration since September.
College-educated women are one of only three groups that have moved toward trusting the GOP more on illegal immigration, and they shifted the most. Women under age 55 shifted one point toward trusting the GOP more, and active voters who had voted in three out of four recent elections moved two points toward Republicans. These are signals that highly active groups, including college-educated women and those with an active voting history, are moving toward trusting Republicans to handle illegal immigration, a greenlight for the GOP.
It is no surprise that the timeframe in which college-educated voters, and women in particular, have moved toward Republicans has included radical leftwing activists attempting to harass, dox, and otherwise interfere with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers. In addition, there is strong evidence that President Trump’s approach to deportation and border security are reducing crime at a rapid pace, with crime numbers on track to reach the lowest on record since 1900 when the federal government began to track these numbers.
While some might have predicted college-educated voters, particularly women who tend to lean Democrat, would shift further left in the wake of the anti-ICE protests, the chaos in cities across the country could have had the opposite effect. White, college-educated voters, particularly women, say they are planning to support a Republican in November at a higher rate than they did last fall. In addition, college-educated voters are shifting back toward trusting Republicans to handle public safety and immigration.
The New York Times also found evidence of a shift away from Democrats among white, college-educated voters. The survey from Jan. 12-17 found just 29 percent of white, college-educated voters identify as Democrats now, down five points from Oct. 2024 when 34 percent did. The vast majority — 40 percent — identify as independents now, up six points from Oct. 2024.
A smaller share of women in the Times poll identity as Democrats now compared to Oct. 2024 as well. Less than a third of women (32 percent) now identify as Democrats according to the Times survey, down seven points from Oct. 2024.
Other survey data from Cygnal shows that Americans are growing weary of illegal immigration and most supportive deportation. A Feb. 2 survey of likely 2026 voters from Cygnal found that a full 73 percent of voters say that entering the United States illegally is breaking the law and voters also said by 27 points — 61 percent to 34 percent — that those who are here illegally should be deported. The survey also found over half of voters — 54 percent — want ICE to enforce federal immigration laws and remove illegal immigrants.
Thanks to President Donald Trump’s commitment to addressing crime and securing the border, crime numbers are on track to clock in at the lowest in modern history. Republicans have also successfully secured the border and are carrying out the deportation of the worst illegal criminals in the country. The GOP’s action on addressing crime and border security are pushing college-educated voters, particularly women, toward Republicans. While it is unlikely Republicans will win a plurality of college-educated women, President Trump’s leadership on crime and border security are an opening for Republicans to increase their share of a demographic that only recently appeared to be lost to conservatives.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
