The rise in independent voters and what that could mean for both parties is something Americans for Limited Government Foundation has covered in detail, but the New York Times survey from Jan. 12-17 paints these shifts starkly when comparing to a Times survey released two weeks before the 2024 presidential election.
Much of the rise in independent voters has come from groups Democrats have traditionally relied on, including women, college-educated voters, young people and minorities.
Among other notable shifts, the survey shows less than half of registered Black voters (48 percent) now identity as Democrats, down fifteen-points in the past fourteen months.
Just over one-third (34 percent) of white, college educated voters identify as Democrat now, down from 39 percent fourteen months ago.
Less than a third (32 percent) of registered female voters now identity as Democrat, down from 39 percent in Oct. 2024.
Less than a third (31 percent) of voters age 18-29 identify as Democrat, down from 33 percent in Oct. 2024.
Less than a quarter (24 percent) of millennials age 30-44 identity as Democrat, down from 32 percent fourteen months ago.
One-in-five registered men identity as a Democrat, down from 24 percent in Oct. 2024.
The hollowing out of the Democrat Party over the past fourteen months is directly related to the rise in independent voters.
The largest share of men now identity as independent, with 39 percent of men now identifying as independent, 29 percent as Republican and 26 percent as Democrat according to the Times survey. The share of men identifying as independent has risen five points from 34 percent to 39 percent since the 2024 election.
While fewer women identity as independent — 32 percent — the share of women identifying as independent is up six points since the 2024 election.
As the share of independent voters has risen, the numbers of voters identifying as Democrats has declined. Two weeks before the 2024 election, just under a quarter of men identified as Democrats (24 percent), but that number has dropped to one-in-five with only 20 percent of men identifying as Democrats now. Democrats have lost ground with women too. In Oct. 2024, 39 percent of women identified as Democrats, and that number is now less than a third (32 percent).
Hispanics have seen a double-digit rise in voters identifying as independent, with 21 percent of Hispanics identifying as independent in the weeks before the 2024 election and 32 percent identifying as independent now. Black voters have seen a six-point rise, with 26 percent identifying as independent before the election and 32 percent identifying as independent now.
The share of Latinos identifying as Democrat has declined a full twelve points over the past fourteen months, from 46 percent identifying as Democrat in Oct. 2024 to just 34 percent identifying as Democrat now.
The decline for Democrats among Black voters has been substantial, with less than half of Black voters (48 percent) now identifying as Democrats, down from 63 percent in 2024. This represents a fifteen-point decline for Democrats in fourteen months, despite Democrats doing everything feasible to villainize President Donald Trump.
Young voters, once seen as the backbone of the Democratic Party, are slipping through the party’s grasp according to the Times survey. The largest share of voters under age 30, 37 percent, now identity as independents, up three points since 2024. At the same time, just 31 percent of young voters identify as Democrats, down from 33 percent in the weeks leading up to the 2024 election. Granted, the share of young voters identifying as Republican has slipped six points from 25 percent to nineteen percent since the 2024 election.
Among millennials, the decline in support for Democrats has been more clearly correlated to a rise in support for independent voters. There has been an eight-point decline in support for Democrats among millennials aged 30-44, from 32 percent in Oct. 2024 to 24 percent now. That is right, less than a quarter of the millennial generation that was the bedrock of Former President Obama’s two-terms now identity as Democrats. Over the past fourteen months, Republicans have seen a three-point decline in support (from 29 percent to 26 percent), and independents have seen a two-point rise, from 34 percent to 36 percent.
Gen X voters are also on the exit from Democrats to the tune of a nine-percentage point decline over the past fourteen months. In Oct. 2024, 30 percent of voters aged 45-64 identified as Democrat and that number now sits at 21 percent. The share of Gen X identifying as Republican (34 percent) has not changed since the election, but the share identifying as independent has risen seven points, from 32 percent to 39 percent.
Even the bedrock of the modern Democratic Party, white, college-educated voters, are no longer keeping Democrats afloat. The share of white college-educated voters identifying as Democrat has declined five points in fourteen months, from 34 percent in Oct. 2024 to 29 percent. The share identifying as Republican has dropped a single percentage point, from 28 percent to 27 percent. At the same time, the share of white college-educated voters identifying as independent has jumped six points, from 34 percent to 40 percent.
The mainstream media is pushing a number of narratives, including that the rise in independent voters benefits Democrats because according to a Jan. 12 Gallup survey a slightly larger share of independent-leaners lean toward the Democratic Party.
The rise in independent voters has largely been at the expense of Democrats. The Democratic Party has lost across the board with voters that were once the bedrock of the party. College-educated whites, young people, women, Hispanics, and Black voters are all identifying as Democrat in rapidly declining numbers and choosing to identify as political independents. This does not mean they will be easy recruits for Republicans. What it does show is that the bedrock of the Democratic Party is crumbling, even in a midterm election cycle where Republicans are defending their position in Washington.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
