Did anyone notice that the 10-year, 2-year un-inverted, forestalling recession fears?
http://dailytorch.com/2019/09/did-anyone-notice-that-the-10-year-2-year-un-inverted-forestalling-recession-fears/
Don’t look now, but if you were planning on a severe recession and a spike in unemployment before the 2020 elections in the hopes it would help oust President Donald Trump, you might have to keep waiting. The spread between 10-year and 2-year treasuries, the one that inverted in late August for a few trading days, thought to be a fairly reliable predicter of a recession on the horizon and certainly was widely reported as such, un-inverted on Sept. 4 without the same fanfare. Usually, interest rate inversions between the long and short interest rates like the 10-year, 2-year go fairly deep into negative territory for weeks and months as a certain recession signal on average about 16 months after the inversion, but in this case, the inversion was extremely shallow and only lasted for six trading days. So, was it a false signal?
