By Bill Wilson
For the past several election cycles voters have been consolidating into two distinct camps, divided largely by political class and education. Working-class voters, once a reliably Democratic voting bloc, have moved solidly away from the increasingly globalist Democratic Party, and created a more populist and representative Republican Party.
At the same time, the ivory tower elites have harnessed the Democratic Party for their own gain and discarded any semblance of loyalty to the working class. The modern Democratic Party is now firmly in the claws of globalists who push for draconian centralized government, ceaseless foreign occupation, cowardly censorship, and disastrous economic policies.
However, it is not only working-class whites who have fled in droves from the modern Democratic Party.
New polls show President Biden is in deep trouble with swing voter groups he won easily in the 2020 election, and nowhere is this more evident than with working class Blacks and Hispanics.
However, the left refuses to accept responsibility for their own failures with minorities. Discussing the bleak polling results on MSNBC, the Rev. Al Sharpton blamed the GOP and the White House’s lack of “messaging” for Biden’s floundering polling numbers.
“The only reason we didn’t get a George Floyed bill is this Republican party voted against it, if this is messaged right, with the right messages, I think you’ll see these numbers increasingly change”, said Sharpton. “I think if they [the Biden Administration] get their message out, they will not be accused of not getting anything done”, Sharpton continued.
Entirely absent from this discussion was any willingness to accept responsibility for the economic turmoil created under the Biden Administration that is the key contributor to minorities abandoning the left in droves.
Working class minority voters were once a cornerstone of the Democratic Party, called toward the party’s veneer of populist representation, but that facade has faded. Voters see a purely self-interested party, detached from the needs of Americans and fixated on a bizarre cultural agenda and outright destructive economic policies.
The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows President Biden’s lead over Former President Trump among swing voter groups is shrinking substantially compared to his 2020 exit poll numbers.
Biden is down 16 percentage points with Blacks against Trump compared to 2020, 14 percentage points with women, 14 points with voters under 30, eight points with Independents, and a full 30 percentage points with Latinos.
Biden’s most significant loss is among minorities without a college education. His lead over Trump with this once-reliably Democratic group has fallen off a cliff in recent months compared to the share of their vote he won in 2020. In the current NYT/Siena poll, Biden is holding just a 16-percentage point lead over Trump with minorities who do not have a college degree, 49%–33%. His lead has dropped 32 percentage points, going from a 48-point lead against Trump in 2020 exit polls to just 16 points now according to an analysis by the Democratic data firm Catalist.
Working class minorities have been trickling towards the GOP for the past few election cycles, but the Biden Administration’s globalist agenda and abandonment of the middle class is accelerating this shift.
Based on exit polls, the Democratic Party experienced an 11-point decline in its share of the non-college minority vote from 2008 to 2020.
In the 2020 election, Biden secured a 48-point lead among non-college minorities. However, Trump managed to elevate his portion of their votes by six points between 2016 and 2020. Specifically, Trump’s non-college minority vote increased from 20% in 2016 to 26% in 2020.
Over the span of the 2018 to 2022 midterm elections, non-college minorities shifted towards the GOP by eight points. In the 2018 midterms, Democrats garnered 76% of the non-college minority vote compared to Republicans’ 22%. However, in the 2022 midterms, the Democratic lead decreased eight points to 68%, while the Republican share increased to 28%.
Although Democrats have faced challenges in regaining the support of white non-college voters in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida, they have also encountered setbacks with non-college minority voters within these crucial states. Notably, the pool of non-college minorities far exceeds that of college-educated minorities in these electoral battlegrounds.
In the recent midterms in Pennsylvania, the proportion of votes from minorities without a degree was twice that of those with a degree (12% compared to 6%).
Similarly, in Ohio, non-college minorities constituted almost double the number of votes compared to those with a degree (11% compared to 6%).
The 2022 election in Florida demonstrated that minorities without a college degree represented a significant share of the electorate (22%) while minorities with a degree made up 14%. The state witnessed a substantial shift of minority voters toward the GOP between 2018 and 2022, particularly among those without a college degree. The GOP’s support from minorities without a degree surged by an impressive 18 percentage points from 26% in 2018 to 44% in 2022.
In the 2021 Virginia governor’s race, the Americans for Limited Government Foundation highlighted the influential role played by lower-income and minority voters in precincts that transitioned away from the Democratic candidate between 2017 and 2021, contributing to Glenn Youngkin’s victory. Precincts that shifted less Democratic had higher Hispanic and Asian populations, with an average income nearly 50% lower than precincts that leaned more Democratic.
Even as educational attainment within minority communities grows, a substantial segment of the electorate remains minorities without a college degree, and non-college voters tend to be more active during presidential election years.
The modern Democratic Party’s disastrous economic policies, hawkish foreign meddling, and unhinged cultural agenda are key drivers of this shift. However, these trends take years to fully materialize.
Minorities still favor Democrats by and large, but what we are seeing continually is the division between the globalists controlling the party and the working class. Race is on track to become less of an important distinction than the educational divide when it comes to partisanship, as more working-class minorities abandon an empty shell of a party that no longer serves or represents them.
Bill Wilson is the former President of Americans for Limited Government
