Pennsylvania presented one of the closest – and most contentious – presidential election matchups in 2020, with Trump memorably leading the state on election night only to have victory snatched from under him when a flood of absentee ballots streamed in and reversed that picture. Biden ended up narrowly eking out a victory by a 1.17% margin in 2020, after Trump won the state in 2016.Â
Now, Pennsylvania is shaping up to be one of the closest races of the 2024 election. Unlike in battleground states such as Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina – where Trump has amassed wide leads in recent polls – he is polling neck and neck with Biden in Pennsylvania. Â
However, if we dig beneath the surface Pennsylvanians give Biden a lopsided disapproval rating, hold a bleak outlook on the economy, and strongly prioritize securing the southern border, issues that could drive a larger share of moderates and Independents toward Trump.
The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Trump earning 46% of the vote to Biden’s 49% in Pennsylvania, a reversal from June when Quinnipiac found Trump narrowly beating Biden for the first time in a high-quality poll since 2015.
The January 2024 Quinnipiac poll indicates that while voters are considering reelecting Biden, they are critical of his record, and largely disagree with Democrats on immigration, a top priority for the state.
Biden’s approval rating is underwater by close to 20 points, with 58% of voters disapproving of his performance to 40% approving. For comparison, Pennsylvania’s Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro has a relatively high 59% approval rating. This is not an endorsement of Shapiro by any means, but it does illustrate just how bleak Biden’s numbers are in a state which elected a Democratic governor and appears fairly pleased with their choice.
On the economy, voters are gloomy, and many believe their income is not keeping up with inflation. Pennsylvania voters say 44% to 26% the nation’s economy is getting worse, and two-thirds (66%) say the economy is not so good or poor according to the poll. On a personal note, 61% of voters say their income is not able to keep up with inflation.  Â
Immigration is a glaring issue that could drive Pennsylvania voters away from Biden and Democrats, as Pennsylvanians place a high priority on border security and are deeply troubled about the way Democrats have handled the border.Â
According to the poll, border security is the second most important issue to Pennsylvania voters, with 24% of voters saying preserving Democracy is their number one issue out of a slate of 11 issues, while 23% say border security is number one and 15% say the economy is number one. No other issue reached double digits in the poll.
While Pennsylvania is not a border state, the people of Pennsylvania are highly aware of the ramifications of illegal immigration and our porous southern border. A recent CBS News / YouGov poll found 45% of Americans believe the border is in crisis, but in Pennsylvania an overwhelming 59% of voters say illegal immigration is a very serious problem. This implies Pennsylvanians views the border security issue as a crisis by close to 14 points more than the public at large. What is more, Pennsylvanians say 79% to 15% that Congressional Democrats should compromise with Republicans to come to a solution on the border issue.
Pennsylvania is showing one of the tightest races for the 2024 presidential election, and unlike in several other battleground states which have flipped to support Trump by wide margins compared to 2020, Pennsylvania remains highly contentious. That said, Biden’s approval rating in the state is extremely low, and voters feel their economic stability is on the decline under Biden. Immigration is a hot-button issue in Pennsylvania, and voters’ vehement declaration that the border is in crisis could push the needle toward Trump.
Manzanita Miller is an associate analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
