By Manzanita Miller
The latest CBS News/ YouGov survey highlights just how little of an impact former President Trump’s guilty verdict seems to have on voters’ priorities this fall. According to the poll, Trump’s verdict is significantly less important to a plurality of Americans than a slate of domestic issues including the economy, inflation and immigration. However, President Joe Biden’s voters are increasingly saying their vote this fall will be to block Trump, not to support Biden.
A plurality of Americans (55 percent) say Trump’s verdict is a non-factor for their vote, while just 28 percent say it is a major factor and 17 percent say it is a minor factor according to the survey. In addition, 51 percent of Americans say they view the election in November as a comparison between Trump and Biden, not as a “judgment” about either candidate.
While just 45 percent of Americans say the Trump verdict is a factor in their vote – with 28 percent saying it is a major factor and 17 percent saying it is a minor factor – wide pluralities of Americans rank other issues like crime, the economy, and immigration as priorities.
According to the poll, 96 percent of Americans say economic issues are a factor in their vote this fall, with 81 percent saying the economy is a major factor and 15 percent saying it is a minor factor.
Inflation is the second most important issue with a full 93 percent of Americans citing inflation as playing a factor in November. Seventy-five percent of Americans say inflation will play a major factor in November, while 18 percent say it will play a minor factor. There are very few disparities among Americans who prioritize inflation, but there is a 13-point gap between non-college voters (81 percent) and college educated voters (68 percent).
Crime is also an important factor in November according to the poll, with 90 percent of Americans saying crime is factor in their vote. Sixty-two percent say crime is a major factor and 28 percent say it is a minor factor according to YouGov.
The border is also a major factor in November, with 88 percent of Americans saying immigration will impact their vote in November. Over half (56 percent) of voters say the border is a major factor and 31 percent say the border is a minor factor. Whites (61 percent), Republicans (83 percent) and non-college Americans (69 percent) prioritize the border at the highest rates.
To put the verdict into context, less Americans say the verdict is a major factor in their vote than other relatively low-ranking priorities are. For example, while just 28 percent of Americans say the Trump verdict is major factor in their vote, 37 percent of voters say issues of race and identity are a major factor in their vote and 35 percent say climate change is a major factor. All three minor issues pale in importance for a majority of voters when stacked up against concerns about the economy, inflation, crime, and immigration.
While the verdict has had a negligible impact on a majority of Americans, it appears to have moderately motivated Biden voters to pledge to vote in November in a protest vote against Trump.
Biden supporters appear to be largely not Biden supporters at all – but planning to support President Biden to oppose Trump.
A mere 27 percent of likely Biden voters say they are mainly supporting Biden in November because they like him while 19 percent are supporting him largely because he is the Democratic nominee. The remaining 54 percent are supporting Biden “mainly to oppose Doanld Trump”, according to the poll.
Interestingly, it is white Biden supporters who appear the most furious over the Trump verdict, with a full 62 percent of white Biden supporters saying their vote in November will mostly be an effort to block Trump, compared to just 31 percent of Blacks and 50 percent of Hispanics. There is little difference between the share of college-educated Biden voters (64 percent) and non-college Biden voters (61 percent) who say they are mainly supporting Biden to oppose Trump.
The picture is nearly a mirror opposite among Trump voters, with over half (52 percent) saying they are supporting the former president mainly because they like him, while just 14 percent are supporting him because he is the GOP nominee and 34 percent are supporting him because they oppose Biden.
Among Trump supporters, Millennials (57 percent) and voters over 65 (55 percent) are more likely to be supporting Trump because they like him than Gen X voters (47 percent). However, wide majorities of GOP voters support Trump because they like him.
The other disparity is between non college and college educated Trump voters. Noncollege Trump voters are much more likely to be supporting Trump because they like him (60 percent) compared to college-educated Trump voters (42 percent).
While the prevailing narrative in political circles for several election cycles has been that Democrats are positively motivated by “hope” while Republicans are negatively motivated by “fear”, that doesn’t appear to be the case this November.
Trump’s verdict is of little concern to most Americans but has riled up a share of his opposition. Very few Americans have faith or hope in the way Biden will govern if he is reelected and his supporters are mostly voting for him in an effort to keep Trump out of the White House. A majority of Trump supporters are positively inclined toward the former president, and are supporting him because they like him, not because of Joe Biden.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
