By Manzanita Miller
While recent polls show former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris allegedly neck and neck three weeks out from the election, on the most important issues to Americans, Trump is maintaining a strong lead. He is also leading Harris among traditionally swing voter groups when it comes to issues like the economy, inflation, and immigration.
The latest YouGov survey shows that on the most important priorities for Americans, Trump is leading Harris by double digits, and he leads her overall on nine key metrics ranging from the economy to guns, crime, Ukraine, and Israel.
Trump’s widest margin by far is on immigration, an issue that consistently ranks within the top three for Americans after the Biden-Harris Administration’s open borders agenda flooded the country with illegal immigrants. Trump leads Harris by 14 points on immigration among likely voters, 48 percent to 34 percent.
What is most notable about Trump’s lead on immigration is the wide support he garners from swing voters, who are not necessarily part of his standard support base. Independents favor Trump on immigration by a broad twenty-one-point margin, 47 percent to 26 percent.
Hispanics favor Trump over Harris on immigration by fifteen points, 45 percent to 30 percent. Think about that – less than one-third of Hispanic Americans endorse the way the immigration issue has been handled by the Harris-Biden Administration and believe Trump would do a better job.
Even young voters who tend to lean left and have flip-flopped on the immigration issue, say Trump would do a better job at handling the border than Harris, favoring Trump by seven points.
Inflation, which consistently ranks first or second to voters in terms of importance, is another priority where Trump leads by double digits, 47 percent to 35 percent. Among independents, Trump maintains a nineteen-point lead, 44 percent to 25 percent, and among Hispanics he leads by nine points, 42 percent to 33 percent.
Then there is the economy. Trump has maintained a consistent lead over his Democratic opponent – whether that is Biden or Harris – for most of Biden’s term. Trump leads Harris on the economy by nine points, 46 percent to 37 percent.
Again, his lead is particularly strong among independents, who favor Trump on the economy by 15 points, 44 percent to 29 percent. Hispanics also favor Trump over Harris on the economy, saying so by seven points.
On six other issues, ranging from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and foreign policy to domestic concerns like guns, disaster response, and crime, Trump maintains a lead over Harris.
Trump leads Harris on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by ten points, 41 percent to 31 percent, and he leads her on the Russia-Ukraine conflict by eight points, 43 percent to 35 percent. On foreign policy overall, Trump leads Harris by six points.
Trump also leads by seven points on crime, 44 percent to 37 percent. On guns, Trump leads by a narrow three points, 41 percent to 38 percent, and on disaster response he leads by a single point, 39 percent to 38 percent.
Lining up all the issues and looking at Harris’ totals, less than 40 percent of the country believes she will do a better job than Trump on nine key issues. However, Harris does lead on issues that for the most part rank as less important to voters compared to the economy and immigration. Harris has a fourteen-point lead on abortion, a thirteen-point lead on the environment, a ten-point lead on social issues, and a seven-point lead on “democracy”.
If the election is decided based on the most pressing issues to Americans as evidenced in polling for over two years – and if that election is free and fair – it appears that Trump should be able to win. However, whether the election will be free from fraud, and whether people will vote for prosperity and peace or vote based on fringe ideologies remains to be seen.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
