Poll: If the Election is About Leadership the Choice is Clear  

By Manzanita Miller

Over the past three and a half months since President Joe Biden was shuffled aside as the Democratic nominee and rapidly replaced with Vice President Kamala Harris, Americans have shown significant hesitation about Harris’ ability to lead, and rightfully so.

Leadership was one of the largest concerns among voters once it became public that Harris would be replacing Biden, and it is not exactly difficult to see why. She was a key player in the disturbingly incompetent Biden Administration, and apparently not only missed the fact that Biden was in no condition to run for president let alone run the country, but she largely failed at the key task she was given, securing the border.

Former President Donald Trump, on the other hand, has a solid four-year record during which Americans experienced a booming economy, no new wars breaking out on the global stage, and record low numbers of illegal immigrants crossing the southern border. Like him or not, Trump has a proven record of effective leadership that Harris simply doesn’t.

A week before election day, Harris is still being questioned by a broad swathe of the public in terms of her ability to provide strong leadership – including among a majority of independent voters.  

The latest YouGov poll shows a strong competency gap, with Trump far outpacing Harris when it comes to evaluating each candidate on their ability to lead.

According to the poll, 56 percent of Americans believe Trump would be a “very strong” or somewhat strong leader, while 50 percent say Harris would be, giving Trump a six-point advantage on leadership. The numbers are even worse for Harris when looking at perceived strength in leadership.

For Trump, the largest share of the public – 41 percent – say Trump would be a “very strong” leader, but only 27 percent say the same for Harris. Smaller shares of the public – 15 percent for Trump and 23 percent for Harris – say each candidate would be a “somewhat strong” leader.

Ten percent of Americans say Trump would be a “somewhat weak” leader and 13 percent say Harris would be. In addition, 37 percent of Americans believe Harris would be a “very weak” leader, while 33 percent say Trump would be. When it comes to evaluating “very strong” leadership, Trump holds a 14-point advantage over Harris, something that should be concerning for Democrats a week before election day.

Among independents – a group which voted for Joe Biden by 13 points in 2020 – Trump now has a clear advantage over Harris on leadership. Thirty-five percent of independents say Trump would be a “very strong” leader, while 55 percent believe he would be a very or somewhat strong leader overall.

For Harris, just 20 percent of independents believe she would be a “very strong” leader, and 45 percent say she would be a very or somewhat strong leader. Trump has a ten-point advantage on leadership and a 15-point advantage on “very strong” leadership among independents, who as a group backed Biden by double digits in 2020.

In terms of placing trust in the two candidates on key issues, Trump continues to lead on the issues Americans deem most important to their vote next Tuesday – the economy, inflation, and immigration.

YouGov’s survey released this week shows Trump leads Harris on the economy and inflation by nine points each, and he leads on immigration by 14 points. Among independents, Trump’s lead is even larger. He leads on the economy with independents by 14 points, and he leads on inflation with independents by 15 points. Trump leads on immigration with independents by a full 25 points leading into the election.

Trump also leads on the Russia-Ukraine conflict by ten points, the Isarel-Palestine conflict by eleven points, foreign policy by eight points, crime by nine points, and guns by four points in the latest survey. Harris, meanwhile, leads on a slate of issues that frequently rank lower in importance than inflation, the economy, and immigration, carving out leads on LGBTQ issues, abortion, the environment, education, and healthcare.

Economic issues continue to top the list of voters’ concerns, and the YouGov data shows a three-point shift toward Trump since September among voters who say the economy is a major factor in their choice for president. In September, 53 percent of voters who said the economy was a major factor in their choice for president favored Trump while 47 percent favored Harris, but Trump has gained three points, and Harris has lost three since that poll.  

As much as the left has attempted to frame this election through the lens of everything but leadership – from emotional appeals about electing the first female president to an insistence that only Harris would “preserve Democracy” – the reality is leadership is still the most fundamental aspect of the job.   

If this election is about which candidate voters trust to steer the country on the most important issues, the choice is Trump.

Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.