Democrats are continuing to struggle to gain ground in generic Congressional ballot polls, despite the midterm elections inching closer. The latest Real Clear Polling average has Democrats ahead of Republicans by just 2.4 points, and Cygnal, a polling organization that challenges mainstream narratives with data, shows Americans largely back President Donald Trump on deportation and the Iran missile strike, and say Trump keeps campaign promises better than most politicians.
According to the latest Cygnal poll of 1,500 likely midterm voters conducted July 1-2, concerns over inflation are dropping as Trump’s tariffs take effect. In addition, half of Americans support ICE’s mission to deport illegal aliens (and Hispanic support has risen over the past two months), Americans largely support Trump’s nuclear strike.
While Cygnal found Democrats ahead of Republicans in the generic Congressional ballot by a single percentage point, 47 percent to 46 percent, swing voters could present a challenge for Democrats. For example, college-educated males are split down the middle, with 47 percent intending to support Republicans and 47 percent intending to support Democrats. Suburban voters are narrowly leaning Democrat, 48 prevent to 47 percent. According to the survey 19 percent of Blacks and 40 percent of Hispanics are also intending to support Republicans, a historically significant swing if it materializes.
According to the survey, concerns about inflation are dropping. Just 17 percent of Americans say inflation, or the economy are their top concerns, an 18-point decline since June. This is the first time first since September of 2022 according to Cygnal that inflation and the economy have not registered as the top concern to voters. Instead, threats to democracy (18%) has risen in priority among voters. Democrats, younger voters, and non-white voters all measured a marked decrease in concerns over inflation.
The survey found strong support for President Trump’s approach to the tenuous Israel-Iran standoff, with 57 percent of Americans saying Trump was definitely or probably justified in destroying Iranian nuclear facilities. A larger share of voters (41 percent) say Trump was definitely justified than the share who say he was probably not justified (13 percent) or definitely not justified (22 percent).
Even among left-leaning and swing voters, support for Trump’s approach to Iran is relatively strong. Independents say Trump’s moves were justified by seven points (49 percent to 42 percent), younger women agree by five points (47 percent to 42 percent), and even urbanites say Trump’s moves were justified by a narrow three points (47 percent to 44 percent). Union households support Trump’s moves by a resounding 16 points, 55 percent to 39 percent, and moderates support his moves by nine points, 50 percent to 41 percent.
On ICE and deportation, Americans support the effort to deport illegals by two points, 49 percent to 47 percent. A full 36 percent strongly support the ICE deportation effort. Here, swing voters are more divided, with men, including college-educated men, forming the bulk of support for the deportation effort. Men over age 55 support the deportation effort by a full 29 points, 64 percent to 35 percent. Men under age 55 support deportation by 13 points, 56 percent to 43 percent. While Hispanics oppose the deportation effort by 17 points, 57 percent to 40 percent, a full 32 percent strongly support deportation. Married Americans support deportation by 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent and parents support deportation by seven points, 52 percent to 45 percent.
The survey also found that half of voters believe President Trump keeps campaign promises better than most politicians, with 38 percent saying he keeps promises “much better than most”. According to Cygnal, among voters who switched from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024, a full 78 percent say Trump keeps promises better than most, indicating that regardless of the mainstream media spin, newcomers view Trump as more trustworthy than the average politician.
Despite attempting to divide Americans by using the ICE protests, criticizing Trump’s handling of the tense Iran-Israel standoff, and attempting to block the One Big Beautiful Bill, Democrats are ahead by a historically low margin compared to past midterm cycles, and have not grown that advantage over the past several months. Concerns over inflation are dropping significantly since President Trump’s trade policies began to take effect, and voters — particularly newcomers to the GOP — say Trump keeps promises better than any politician.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
