Democrat favorability has plunged among swing voters since 2017, the year before the 2018 midterm election cycle when Democrats won a net gain of 41 seats in the House of Representatives, taking back control of the House for the first time in eight years. Democrats are hoping to repeat that strategy in 2026, but the political landscape has changed — a lot.
While Congressional Democrats cling to a narrow lead of 3.6 percentage points in the latest generic Congressional ballot average, there is reason to believe that edge may not materialize in the election next year, considering how rock-bottom the party’s favorability is among swing voters.
Democrats are sitting at a historic low in favorability among the general public, and their numbers have absolutely cratered compared to where they sat in 2017 among swing voters, notably, young, independent, and Hispanic voters. College-educated voters, a group which supported Democrats by double digits in 2018, are also increasingly critical of the Democrat Party.
According to the latest YouGov survey, Democrats sat at a favorable rating among young people of 6.4 points in Sep. of 2017, the Autumn before the 2018 midterm cycle. At that time, 47.6 percent of voters under age 30 had a favorable view of the Democratic Party, while slightly fewer, 41.2 percent, held a negative view. The Democrat Party’s net favorable rating was 6.4 points in Sep. 2017. That positive view of the party has evaporated and reversed over the past eight years, pushing Democrats into territory the party has never faced with young people.
The latest YouGov survey from Aug. 24 shows Democrats sitting at a net favorable rating of -35.1 points, with over two-thirds (64.8 percent) of young voters holding an unfavorable view of the party, while 29.7 percent hold a positive view. This amounts to a staggering 41.5 percentage point decline in net favorability for Democrats over just eight years.
Hispanic favorability for Democrats has also declined substantially since 2017, but not to the degree that it has for young voters. Democrats sat at a net favorability of 8.8 points in Sep. 2017, with 50.1 percent of Hispanics holding a favorable view of the party while 41.3 percent held an unfavorable view. Those numbers have reversed today, with Democrats sitting at a net approval rating of -11.1 points. 51.2 percent of Hispanics now have an unfavorable view of the Democrat Party, and 40.1 percent have a favorable view. This amounts to a 19.9 percentage-point decline in net favorability for Democrats since Sep. 2017.
The Democrat Party has also suffered a significant blow among Black voters, a group which overwhelmingly supports Democrats, but is showing one of the largest declines in support compared to 2017. In Sep. 2017, the Democrat Party enjoyed a net approval rating of 51.5 percentage points, with a full 71.5 of Black voters holding a favorable view of the party while 20 percent held an unfavorable view. Today, the Democratic Party sits at a net approval rating of 24.2 percentage points, with less than two-thirds (60 percent) of Black voters approving of the party and 35.8 percent disapproving. This amounts to a 27.3 percentage-point plunge in net approval for Democrats.
College educated voters, a group which voted for Democrats by a 23-point margin in the 2018 midterms, are also moving away from the Democratic Party at an accelerated pace. In the fall of 2017, college educated voters were lukewarm about the Democratic Party and offered the party a net approval rating of -13.2 percentage points. It wasn’t a high approval rating, but it was enough to lock in the college educated in the 2018 midterms. That may not be the case in 2026. Democrats currently sit at a net approval rating of -28.5 points, with 62.8 percent of college-educated voters disapproving of the party while 34.3 percent approve.
These bleak favorability ratings are stark when measured against the Democratic Party’s favorability among swing voters just eight years ago. The steep, double-digit declines in favorability for a party that has been labeled “weak and woke” by voters is not a surprise. What is a surprise, is that the Democratic Party has the audacity to criticize conservatives for implementing real solutions to inflation, joblessness, crime, and the border, and then expects these voters to line up to support them at the ballot box.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
