The Democratic Party is in crisis as Congressional Democrats struggle to establish credibility on the illegal immigration crisis, unchecked crime and political violence, and the contentious government shutdown in which Democrats are demanding a permanent expansion of Obamacare and the of repeal sections of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that keep taxpayers from subsidizing Medicare for illegals. Conservative priorities like rooting out government waste, tackling rising crime, and securing the border are receiving a wave of support from the American people, and two-thirds of Americans identity as either conservative or moderate, while just 28 percent say they are liberal today.
The Democratic Party is rapidly losing membership and trailing the GOP in terms of new voter registration numbers. A New York Times report sent shockwaves through the Democratic establishment in August, revealing that Republicans have been far outpacing Democrats in voter registration numbers since 2020. The report found that Democrats lagged behind Republicans in every single state that maintains partisan voter identification records between 2020 and 2024. According to the report, Republicans added a full 2.4 million voters while Democrats lost 2.1 million.
While this loss contributed to President Donald Trump’s sweeping victory in 2024, Democrats are continuing to trail Republicans in voter registration, even in blue states, since the report was released. Voter registration data shows red states are becoming redder, but there is strong evidence that even blue states are registering Republicans at an accelerated pace and seeing stagnant or falling numbers among Democrats.
In the red state of Kentucky, Republicans are adding to their numbers at an accelerated pace, with Secretary of State Michael Adams reporting that Republicans registered the most new voters in September compared to Democrats or independents.
“After six months of Independents surging in voter registration, Republicans now show heightened interest in registration ahead of the May 2026 primary election”, Adams said.
Kentucky voter data records show that Republicans added 4,636 new voters in September and now make up 48 percent of the electorate. The number of registered Democrats declined by 3,354 in September, and Democrats now make up 41 percent of the electorate.
North Carolina is another state to watch. While Republicans still trail Democrats in the contentious battleground state, the GOP is behind by less than 10,000 votes statewide as of September according to the State Board of Elections data. Democrats have lost over 6,000 total registered voters since January, while Republicans have gained 28,657 since the beginning of the year.
Democrats’ share of the vote in North Carolina has been on the decline for over three and a half decades, dropping from 65 percent of the vote in 1988 to just 31 percent in 2025, a 34-point decline. While a great deal of that decline in Democratic affiliation can be attributed to an increase in third-party or unaffiliated voters, the decline in Democratic affiliation should be highly troubling to Democrats.
In New Jersey, which some analysts have speculated could become a “purple state” in the wake of strong shifts toward the right in 2024, Republicans and unaffiliated voters are dominating new voter registration numbers. New Jersey Secretary of State data shows while Democrats maintain a significant lead in voter registration numbers, Democrats lost over 4,000 voters in September, while Republicans added 2,385 voters over the same period. The bulk of new voters — over 13,000 individuals — registered as unaffiliated voters.
Even in the blue state of California, Democrats are seeing a tapering off in voter registration numbers. Democrats still make up nearly half of registered voters in the state while Republicans make up 25 percent and non-partisans make up 22 percent. However, since Feb. 10, 82,700 new non-partisan voters have registered as well as 48,000 new Republican voters, while Democrats have only registered 190 new voters according to data analyzed by California Politics 360.
Democrats are continuing to struggle with adding new members, and appear to have reached their threshold even in blue states where the party’s power is weakening. Unaffiliated voters are on the rise and account for a significant portion of the decline in Democratic affiliation, but Republicans are steadily gaining across red, blue, and purple states leading into the 2026 midterm cycle. The latest generic congressional ballot data still shows Democrats ahead by a historically modest three percentage points. The Democratic Party has spent the last ten years vilifying President Donald Trump and conservatives instead of offering solutions to globalism, trade imbalances, the border crisis, and escalating crime, and the left is slowly driving away moderate and independent voters.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
