By Bill Wilson
In the early 2000’s Democrat political “scientists” predicted that demographic destiny, or the reshaping of the voter population through second and third-world immigration, would eventually erase the Republican Party. As it turned out, Hispanics and immigrants have become swing voters, throwing a wrench in Democrats’ plans.
However, there is a tangible form of demographic destiny that is shaking up the political landscape, and it will be particularly hard to escape from, particularly for Democrats. New data shows a significant and increasing gap between conservatives and liberals when it comes to getting married and starting a family.
The Institute for Family Studies (IFS) reports that since 2010, parenthood has dropped significantly among liberal but not conservative women. 40 percent of liberal women between 25-35 are parents today, and that number is down eleven percentage points since 2010. Among conservative women, there has been almost no change over the past decade, with just over 70 percent reporting being parents. The IFS data concludes that there is now a 31-point gap between young liberal and conservative women who are parents.
The results of this vast and increasing parenthood gap are already impacting elections. IFS dug into election data from the 2024 presidential election and found that counties that voted for President Donald Trump had substantially higher birth rates than counties that voted for Kamala Harris. According to IFS, in the top 20 percent of counties where Trump secured the widest margin of victory, the total birth rate, while still below replacement, was 1.76, above the national average of 1.63. Conversely, counties that voted for Harris at the highest margins had total birth rates well below the national average, with the top 20 percent of Harris counties offering a total birth rate of 1.37.
To add heat to the fire, young conservatives — especially men — place starting a family near the top of the list of life goals, while liberal women place having children nearly at the bottom. An NBC News poll from Sep. 8 found a deepening political divide between young men and women 18-29, and that divide coincides with the desire to get married and start a family. The poll found young men are nearly twice as likely as young women to approve of President Trump, with 47 percent of men 18-29 saying they approve of Trump’s job as president compared to just 26 percent of young women, a 21-point gap.
When asked about their most important life goals, men 18-29 who voted for Trump said that out of thirteen different life goals including being married, achieving financial independence, and owning a home, having children was the most important goal to them. For young women who voted for Trump, having children ranked somewhere in the middle at the sixth most important goal. For young men who voted for Kamala Harris, having children ranked in the last three goals as the tenth most important, and for young women who voted for Kamala Harris, having children ranked second-to-last in twelfth place.
The next few generations of Americans will increasingly be disproportionately raised in conservative families with conservative values, because liberals are raising fewer kids. While more must be done raise fertility across the country — the President’s “baby bucks” new child accounts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act stands out as one of the first attempts by the federal government to create a real incentive — how communities refocus on raising families will have wide-reaching political implications, and the trend is only accelerating. Conservative young people are much more likely to get married and prioritize becoming parents than liberals, and the results of those decisions were already detectable in election returns from the 2024 presidential election. Conservatives still need to put up their best fight over the next several years, but with a powerful tailwind at their back they will raise the next generation of Americans, and liberals will not.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
