Independent identity among Americans has reached a new high, with a full 45 percent of U.S. adults identifying as independent heading into the 2026 midterm cycle according to a new Gallup survey. That number is the highest on record since Gallup began surveying voters on political identity and represents a challenge for both parties. However, there is evidence that this explosion in independent identity has correlated with a strong decline in support for Democrats specifically.
While the mainstream media has been quick to frame the new rise in independent voters as either benign or beneficial to Democrats because a slightly larger share of independents lean toward the Democratic Party in the survey, there is reason to believe this rise in independent-identity correlates to a decline in Democrat power.
According to the survey released Jan. 12 by Gallup, the share of Americans identifying as independent has reached a record high, with 45 percent of Americans identifying as independent. This number has been increasing rapidly for the past 15 years. Gallup notes that independents now make up 45 percent of the population, while Republicans and Democrats both make up just 27 percent each. Gallup also notes that when accounting for ‘leaners’, independents leaning Democrat outnumber independents leaning Republican by five points, 47 percent to 42 percent. That said, it is impossible to ignore the fact that as independent identity has risen, support for Democrats has fallen significantly.
In the 2020 election, 30 percent of the population identified as Democrat, 29 percent as Republican, and 39 percent identified as independent. Independent affiliation has risen six points since 2020, while Democrat identity has fallen three points and Republican identity has fallen two. That might not be much of a switch from Democrat to independent but look back at 2016 and the trend becomes clear.
In 2016, Republican identity was nearly the same as it is now — 28 percent — independent identity was 39 percent, and Democrat identity was 31 percent. Compared to 2026 numbers, that is a one-point decline for Republicans, but a four-point decline for Democrats, and a six-point increase for independents.
On top of that, voter registration numbers and polling throughout much of last year showed a Democratic Party in crisis as voters fled, called for a complete overhaul of Congressional leadership and gave Democrats their lowest approval rating in decades.
A New York Times report from Aug. 2025 found that among the 30 states that maintain voter registration numbers by political party, Democrats lagged behind Republicans in every single state. The report showed that between 2020 – 2024, Republicans added 2.4 million voters while Democrats parted ways with 2.1 million.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released June 19, 2025, showed Democrat voters saying by a 38-point margin — 62 percent to 24 percent — that they wanted to replace their entire leadership with new leaders.
An Economist/YouGov survey from June 18, 2025 found Democrats said disproportionately that a third party is needed in the United States. 47 percent of Democrats said a third party is needed, while just 35 percent of Republicans said the same thing, a twelve-point difference.
The latest Real Clear Polling survey, which has aggregated data through Dec. 15, 2025, shows Democrats’ approval rating underwater by 23 percentage points, with 56.2 percent of Americans giving them an unfavorable rating, while 32.5 percent give the party a favorable rating. The GOP is also underwater, but by 14.3 points, with 52.5 percent of Americans giving Republicans an unfavorable rating, while 38.2 give the GOP a favorable approval rating.
While new polling will become available to take the temperature of voters in 2026, there is little data showing a “rise” in Democratic Party identity or favorability, and the increase in independent affiliation appears to come largely at the cost of Democrats. It is also worth looking back at 2014 when independent identity exploded, and that increase resulted in a mass political realignment and decline in power for Democrats that the party has never recovered from.
In 2014, Gallup reports that the share of independent voters reached 43 percent — close to 2026 levels but not quite reaching the 45 percent mark. House Republicans in opposition swept the midterm cycle in a revolt against socialized healthcare and excessive government spending under the incumbent Obama administration. The GOP picked up nine seats in the Senate, securing a majority for the first time since the 2006 cycle. Republicans also expanded their majority in the House, turning a net thirteen formerly Democrat seats red. Among record-high independent identity, the GOP won independents by twelve points, 54 percent to 42 percent according to exit poll data.
Two years later, President Donald Trump ran as a Republican with an independent background and upended the way Washington works by winning the presidency against Democrat war-hawk Hillary Clinton. Trump beat Clinton among independents by six points, 48 percent to 42 percent.
In 2024, another year in which independent identity reached 43 percent, President Donald Trump won the popular vote for the first time for a Republican in two decades and Republicans held onto the House and won control of the Senate. Though independents narrowly supported Democrats in 2024 — they supported Kamala Harris by three points — independent support for Democrats has eroded since the election. In Nov. 2024, Democrats were underwater with independents by 34 points, 64 percent to 30 percent. Democrats are underwater with independents by an alarming 47 points now, 71 percent to 24 percent.
It is true that 2026 looks different than 2014 and 2024, namely because now the GOP is the incumbent — and therefore defensive — party. Economic perception is a drag on President Donald Trump and the GOP’s approval ratings, but voters still prefer Trump and the GOP on all major issues except healthcare. Republicans have their work cut out for them staving off Democrat challenges in battleground districts this fall. That said, the increase in independent political affiliation signals that swing voters are not only a growing share of the voter pool, but their presence could put Democrats on defense as well.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
