California’s Democrat governor Gavin Newsom, who earned criticism from California voters due to his Covid-19 lockdowns, is term-limited and ineligible to run again in 2026 leaving the field wide open for new leadership. At least eight Democrats are vying to replace Newsom, but because of the way the state’s top two primary is organized, it is possible the crowd of Democrat contenders will split the vote in the primary, and no Democrat will amass enough votes to proceed. If this happens, two Republicans will move ahead to the general election in November, ensuring a Republican Governor of California.
California hasn’t had a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger served two terms from 2003 to 2011. While the state is widely viewed as a left-wing stronghold, the 2024 election revealed cracks in the system for Democrats with President Donald Trump increasing his share of the vote by four percentage points statewide and flipping ten counties from 2020 to 2024. Democrats locking the state down during the pandemic, fanning the flames of anti-ICE rioters, and neglecting voters’ concerns about crime and taxes have all chipped away at their support.
In California, all candidates for governor face off in the June 2 primary, regardless of party, and the two candidates with the highest percentage of the vote — regardless of party — proceed to face off in the general election. What this means practically is that the more Democrat candidates enter the already crowded primary pool, the more chances there are for the Democrat vote to be split among multiple Democrats.
And so far, it is shaping up to be a very crowded primary on the Democrat side, with at least eight different Democrat candidates vying for a share of the vote.
According to a Dec. 4 Emerson College poll that surveyed California voters on a list of candidates for governor — but did not include the entire slate of Democrat gubernatorial candidates — the Democrat vote is already likely to be split between at least five Democrats.
Since then, the list of Democrats entering the primary has expanded to eight and more could still enter before the June 2 primary, while just two Republicans have entered.
On the Republican side, just two candidates have entered. The Emerson poll shows pro-Trump Sheriff Chad Bianco, who opposed the state’s lockdown policies and is tough on crime, leading the pack with 13 percent of the vote. Political commentator Steve Hilton who is also running as a Republican earns 12 percent of the vote.
On the Democrat side, the vote is side is split among Rep. Eric Swalwell (12 percent), former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter (11 percent), former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (five percent), climate activist billionaire Tom Steyer (four percent), and former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra (four percent), according to Emerson.
Independent voters also prefer the Republican gubernatorial candidates according to an Independent Voter Project poll. The survey, released Jan. 12, finds Sherrif Chad Bianco is the top pick among independents with 26 percent of the vote, followed by GOP candidate Steve Hilton at 23.8 percent and “none of the above” at 22.3 percent.
Democrat contenders Eric Swalwell (21 percent), Katie Porter (20.3 percent), Xavier Becerra (12.5 percent), Antonio Villaraigosa (9.8 percent), Rick Caruso (8.8 percent), Betty Yee (6.8 percent), Tony Thurmond (4.7 percent), and Ian Calderon at (2.4 percent) all received less in the Independent Voter Project poll. The poll also finds a majority independents say the state needs more law enforcement, not less, and a majority want the state to cooperate with ICE.
While handing the governor’s seat back to a Republican is a longshot, there are signs that California voters have moved toward the right. President Donald Trump increased his share of the vote by four percentage points statewide between 2020 and 2024 and flipped ten counties including Orange, San Bernardino, Fresno, and San Joaquin.
The more crowded the primary becomes with Democrat contenders, the likelier it becomes that the Democrat vote will be split among several candidates and the top contenders facing off in November will be Republicans. Californians are growing weary with Democrats’ failed approach to crime, housing, and the handling relations with ICE in the state, and independent voters are shifting toward the GOP.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
