With eight Democrats plunging forward in California’s crowded gubernatorial race, Republicans have a shot at occupying the governor’s seat for the first time since 2011 when former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger departed the governor’s mansion.
Should Republicans manage to take control of the governor’s mansion, it is possible Democrat turnout in down-ticket races will be slightly depressed, opening up an opportunity for Republicans to put up a fight in at least four competitive U.S. House seats and possibly lowering Democrat turnout in other races across the state too.
Democrats are afraid that California’s top-two primary system — where the candidates who amass the most votes in the June 2 primary face off in November regardless of party — could lead to two Republicans collecting the highest pluralities of votes and facing off in November, guaranteeing a Republican governor for the first time in fifteen years.
A new poll commissioned by the California Democratic Party found the crowded primary is currently being led by two Republicans, as Democrats split their votes among several candidates.
The survey conducted March 12-17 by Evitarus, found GOP gubernatorial candidates Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and author, and Chad Bianco, a pro-Trump sheriff from Riverside County, leading the governor’s race with 16 percent and 14 percent of the vote respectively.
The survey found Democrats splitting their vote and earning less. Congressman Eric Swalwell, former Congresswoman Katie Porter, and billionaire activist Tom Steyer all earn ten percent of the vote in the Evitarus survey.
The issue comes as eight Democrats — including Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell, former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and billionaire Tom Steyer — have joined the race for governor on the Democratic side.
Only two Republicans are vying for the statewide GOP vote. The crowded field of Democrats sharply increases the possibly of the Democratic vote splitting among eight candidates in the June primary, sending two Republicans to the general election in November.
To narrow down the chances of handing over the governor’s mansion in November, California Democrats are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on polling to weed out weaker candidates according to the Los Angeles Times.
The idea is to launch a series of six polls in an attempt to demonstrate to voters and the media which of the eight Democratic candidates are viable and which are not, although since all eight have filed to appear on the June 2 ballot, the vote is already likely to be heavily split on the Democratic side. This leaves an opportunity for Bianco and Hilton, since the Republican vote will be split in half instead of among several candidates.
Polling from earlier in March showed a modest lead for Democrat Congressman Eric Swalwell, with Republican Steve Hilton coming in second.
An Emerson College survey from March 11 showed Swalwell leading the primary with 17 percent of the vote, while Hilton earned 13 percent. Billionaire Tom Steyer earned eleven percent on the Democrat side, and former Riverside County sheriff Chad Bianco earned eleven percent on the GOP side. The rest of the Democrats earned less.
In the latest Evitarus survey, the two GOP candidates have overtaken all the Democratic candidates, including Swalwell who led the Emerson survey from March 11.
With the California Democratic Party scrambling to get out polling ahead of the June 2 primary to ward voters off from splitting the vote among less viable candidates, some Democrats could drop out. That said, the deadline for placing their names on the ballot has passed and all eight will appear on the ballot.
If Democrats split the vote to such a degree that Hilton and Bianco proceed to faceoff in November, California will elect a Republican for the first time since 2006, meaning the most populated state in the country will be under Republican leadership in the executive branch. There is also speculation that a GOP face-off for the governor’s mansion in November could depress the Democrat vote in down ticket races, allowing the GOP a better chance to secure more of the four competitive House seats in November which the Cook Political Report identifies as CA-13, CA-45, CA-48 and CA-22.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
