In a midterm cycle where President Donald Trump is attempting to wrangle inflation and end a costly foreign conflict, it is reasonable to expect that Democrats would regain ground with swing voters they have lost over the past eight years. However, that does not appear to be happening.
Democrat support from Hispanics is down twenty points since 2022 and a startling thirty points since 2018. New data on young Americans shows Democrats’ lead on the generic congressional ballot has been cut in half since 2018.
While both parties have lost ground with young voters since the 2022 midterm cycle, Democrats have lost ten points in four years. Democrats’ lead in the generic congressional ballot has halved since 2018, declining from a 41-point lead to a 19-point lead.
Comparing the latest Harvard Youth Poll of 18- to 29-year-olds from the Institute of Politics at Harvard University to the same survey conducted in the spring of 2022, the picture is stark.
While Democrats now lead in the generic congressional ballot by nineteen points, 45 percent to 26 percent, those numbers are historically meager.
In 2022 Democrats led on the generic congressional ballot by 21 points, 55 percent to 34 percent. The share of young voters willing to vote Democrat in November has declined ten percentage points over four years.
Let’s put this into perspective by going back to 2018, under President Donald Trump’s first term. That was the year Democrats expanded their reach in the House by 41 seats, with a wave of youth support and a robust showing among independent voters.
The key issues featured in the Harvard Youth Poll from spring 2018 were gun control, economic issues and immigration issues related to DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals).
The mainstream media was firing on all cylinders pushing young voters to vote Democrat, celebrities like Taylor Swift were endorsing Democrats, Teen Vogue reported on a performance at the 2018 MTV music awards featuring migrant families separated at the border, and young people were being fanned into a frenzy over the Trump Administration’s approach to immigration.
In the Harvard Youth Poll from spring 2018 young voters favored Democrats by a startling 41 percentage points on the generic congressional ballot, 69 percent to 28 percent. In November, they went on to support Democrats 67 percent to 32 percent according to exit polls.
Now, just under two years into President Trump’s second term, Democrats’ lead in the generic congressional ballot has decreased from a 41-point lead to a 19-point lead. The share of young people willing to support a Democrat for Congress in 2026 has declined by 24 points (69 percent to just 45 percent). For Republicans? They have lost a mere two points over the past eight years (28 percent to 26 percent).
The survey from 2018 revealed that while the economy was a major issue to young voters, gun control and immigration-related issues were driving forces behind young people’s votes.
In the survey from this spring, those priorities have shifted. The current survey notes, “rising prices and inflation (46 percent) and the cost of housing (40 percent) are the only issues that large shares of young Americans consider urgent national crises, far outpacing other issues tested.”
These are issues young voters feel both parties have neglected, but with manufactured political outrage over immigration falling flat, young people aren’t as interested in supporting Democrats as they used to be.
It isn’t just intention to vote for Democrats in November that has dropped by broad double-digit margins since 2018. Young voters are much less likely to identify as Democrats now too, with only 28 percent of young people saying they are Democrats down from 40 percent in 2018.
The share of young voters who say they are strong Democrats has fallen six points from 22 percent in 2018 to sixteen percent now.
Once again, Republican identify has remained relatively stable. Twenty-five percent of young people identify as Republican now, up four points since 2018. Where the youth vote has shifted modestly is among independent voters, 44 percent now say they are independent, up from 37 percent in 2018.
These surveys were conducted eight years apart, meaning a large chunk of the under thirties from the 2018 survey have shifted into their 30s, attempting to start families and manage households in the era of inflation.
What we do know is that the current generation of Americans aged 18- to 29 are significantly less trusting of the Democratic Party’s solutions than young people from eight years ago.
Young voters’ willingness to support a generic Democrat for Congress has declined by 24 percentage points. Young Americans today express close to the same level of trust in the GOP that young people did in 2018, with 26 percent willing to support a generic Republican down from 28 percent.
This massive decline in support for Democrat candidates and shift in national priorities to addressing inflation and housing could have a significant impact on the next several election cycles.
The data does not show that young voters are wildly excited about the Republican Party in 2026, but that massive, double-digit drop off for Democrats means young voters are no longer buying into the Democratic Party’s rhetoric. Considering that Democrats have relied on the next generation of young Americans to vote for them for the past eighteen years, this historic low in support from young voters is a dire warning to Democrats and an opportunity for conservatives and independent-minded Republicans.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
