The June 2 gubernatorial race in California has Republican candidate Steve Hilton exceeding pre-election polls and headed to the November general election to face the top Democrat pick, former Biden Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra.
As of this writing 94 percent of the vote has been counted and that tally puts Hilton in the top two, earning 24.8 percent of the vote while Becerra won 28 percent. Pre-election polls had Hilton trailing Becerra by eight points.
When you compare Hilton’s performance to previous Republican attempts to oust a Democrat, the results get interesting.
The last gubernatorial primary took place in June 2022 when incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom was challenged by Republican Brian Dahle in the primary.
Becerra fell over a million votes short of Gavin Newsom’s numbers in 2022, winning just over 2.4 million votes compared to Newsom’s over 3.8 million. Of course, Newsom was running as an incumbent with wide name recognition but nonetheless the numbers stand.
Hilton has amassed over 2.1 million votes, beating Republican Brian Dahle’s numbers by close to a million votes. Dahle won just over 1.2 million in 2022.
Comparing Hilton’s ability to make inroads with new swing voters to Dahle’s path in 2022 it is clear that Hilton is eating into Democrat territory, often by wide margins.
While Becerra hung onto most of the blue coastal counties that Newsom won four years ago, Hilton turned multiple inland farming and ranching counties red and flipped several wealthy coastal counties.
In 2022, GOP candidate Brian Dahle’s victories were concentrated almost exclusively in the rural northern part of the state, with Dahle winning counties like Modoc, Lassen, Plumas and Sierra by double digits.
Newsom swept the majority of the rest of the state in 2022, claiming wealthy coastal counties from San Mateo to San Luis Obispo and securing much of the farming and ranching territory inland as well.
In the June 2, 2026, primary, Hilton made significant inroads in farming and ranchland counties.
In Fresno County, which is 55 percent Latino and is the number one agricultural county in the country, Hilton beat Becerra by fourteen points. Newsom won Fresno County by 23 points in 2022. That is a 37-point swing toward the GOP candidate compared to four years ago in a heavily agricultural community with a strong Latino presence.
Hilton also flipped nearby Tulare County, another agricultural hotbed that is nearly 70 percent Latino, winning it by 17 percentage points. In 2022 Newsom won Tulare by five points, amounting to a 23-point swing to the right.
In nearby Madera County, another agricultural county that is 60 percent Latino, Hilton beat Becerra by 23 points. Four years ago, Newsom won Madera by a fraction of a percent, indicating Madera has gone from a swing county to solidly favoring the GOP candidate.
Hilton also won Kings County by fifteen points after Newsom won it by six points, a 21-point swing toward the GOP candidate.
Hilton flipped a total of twelve inland counties between Sacramento and Los Angeles, many of them heavily agricultural or ranch counties with strong Latino populations.
Flipping agricultural counties is not where Hilton stopped. He also flipped several coastal counties with large populations of educated urbanites, including San Luis Obispo, Ventura, Orange, and San Diego counties.
Hilton won wealthy Ventura County by a narrow four percentage points, after Newsom won it by 34 percentage points. This is a striking 38-point swing toward the Republican candidate in one of the wealthiest counties in the U.S.
Hilton also secured San Luis Obispo County by four percentage points, after Newsom won it by 33 points. That is a 37-point swing toward the Republican Party.
Hilton also flipped Orange County, winning it by eleven points after Newsom won it by 24 points, amounting to a 35-point swing. He also flipped San Diego County, winning it by less than three percentage points, after Newsom won it by 29 points, a swing of about 32 points.
What does this data show? Hilton’s wide wins against Becerra compared to the way Newsom secured votes in 2022 reflects two stories. Hilton made significant inroads among rural voters, notably voters from agricultural and ranch counties with heavy Latino populations. His appeal there was striking, with Hilton flipping several inland counties by wide double margins. Hilton also appealed to a portion of wealthy urbanites, winning several coastal counties that went to Newsom in 2022.
Whether Hilton can sweep the state in November remains to be seen, but it is clear that California voters are not sold on the standard tax-and-spend, open borders, criminals over law-abiding citizens Democrat approach. These large shifts across the state also show an electorate that may be more willing to elect Republican House candidates in November. The Cook Political Report has identified six California House districts as some of the most competitive races in the entire country. Because California is so populous, the political whims of its voters impact the rest of the country substantially. For conservatives, the California gubernatorial primary results are hopeful, as California voters are growing weary of Democrat control.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans Limited Government Foundation.
