The latest New York Times/Siena College poll of 3,494 voters, conducted from Oct. 12–19, reveals that the battle for the U.S. Senate is tightening with just days ahead of congressional midterm election compared to Times/Siena polling conducted Sept. 8–13.
The overall spread is closer in the latest survey than it was in mid-September: 47 percent of likely voters plan to support the named Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate on Election Day, while 43 percent plan to support the named Republican, representing a four-point lead for Democrats.
In the mid-September poll, the Democratic Senate candidate held a six-point advantage, with voters planning to support the Democratic candidate 49 percent to 43 percent. The mid-September question excluded the races in Alaska, Delaware, Idaho, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island, where Senate candidates were not yet resolved when the survey was conducted.
While Democrats remain ahead with Election Day less than two weeks away, the party has seen its advantage narrow slightly. Digging deeper into the crosstabs from both surveys reveals where that shift is occurring. Key swing groups — including Latinos, young voters and independents —still plan to vote for Democrats by double-digit margins according to the survey, but those margins have shrunk since September.
The largest shift has occurred among Latino voters, a group Democrats have been reassuring themselves they will win back by wide margins as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have dropped. As Election Day approaches, Latinos are moving in the opposite direction, if only at the margins.
Latinos plan to support Democrats by 14 points (51 percent to 37 percent) in the latest Times poll. In mid-September, Latinos planned to support Democrats by a full 36 percentage points (63 percent to 27 percent). The raw share of the Latino vote for Democrats dropped by 12 points, while the share for Republicans rose by 10 points.
Young voters also show less enthusiasm for their Democratic Senate candidates than they did in mid-September. While the 18–29 age cohort overwhelmingly leans Democratic, young people are less enthusiastic about voting for a Democrat as the election approaches. While Democrats had the youth vote by 42 points (66 percent to 24 percent) in September, Democrats now hold a 35-point lead (61 percent to 26 percent) in the latest poll.
Independents, despite planning to support Democrats by a double-digit margin, have also reduced their support for Democratic Senate candidates compared to mid-September. Independents plan to support the Democratic Senate candidate by 19 points (52 percent to 33 percent) in the latest survey, down from a 28-point lead (59 percent to 31 percent) in mid-September. While the raw vote share for Republicans has barely shifted among independents, the Democratic raw vote share has declined by seven points.
Regionally, another shift has emerged. There appears to be less enthusiasm for supporting Democratic Senate candidates in the Northeastern United States compared to mid-September. Democrats still maintain an advantage in the Northeast, leading by 27 points (59 percent to 32 percent), but that advantage has shrunk significantly. In mid-September, Democrats led in the Northeast by a full 40 points (66 percent to 26 percent), shaving 13 points off the Democratic advantage.
With a key race in Maine, where Democratic contender Troy Jackson is ahead of Sen. Susan Collins by 1.6 percentage points according to the latest Real Clear Polling average, the data hints that Democrats may have to work harder to win in the Northeast compared to mid-September projections.
While the Times poll shows Democrats ahead by four points in the race for control of the U.S. Senate — and ahead by a full 11 points in the race for the House — the Senate data points to tighter margins on Election Day than forecasted five weeks ago. With just under two weeks to go, a lot could still change in the polls, but Election Night could bring a few surprises.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
