While Republicans hoped that economic gains — like the turnaround in U.S. manufacturing that occurred this summer — and victories on crime and immigration would be enough to blunt the blue wave on Election Day, voters enacted a full-on revolt against the party in power last week.
Exit polls reveal that concern over inflation and the economy was top of mind for voters, driving broad shifts among swing voters back toward Democrats after they had moved toward President Trump in the 2024 election.
Fuel prices have continued to remain elevated due to the conflict with Iran, with the price of crude oil trading at over $86 a barrel as of this writing, up from just $56 a barrel on Jan. 7. When Americans cite concerns over inflation and fuel prices, they are also talking about broad downstream price increases, not merely the price at the pump.
The Urban Institute compiles data to track affordability across a range of metrics, from housing and healthcare to childcare, energy prices, and other household essentials.
Data on Americans’ finances and everyday costs released Oct. 26, 2026, the week before the general election, found that nearly half of Americans (49 percent) do not earn the monthly amount needed to meet the rising costs of living.
The cost of home electricity bills outpaced earnings in 31 states between June 2025 and June 2026, according to the Urban Institute’s calculations.
Healthcare premiums are another glaring concern for voters. Americans were told they would see decreases in healthcare premiums after the Affordable Care Act was forced through in 2010. Unfortunately, this has not been the case, and healthcare affordability is becoming a concern for middle-class households that do not receive “Obamacare” subsidies to offset skyrocketing costs.
Monthly health insurance premiums for unsubsidized plans on the Affordable Care Act Marketplace rose by 22 percent over the past year, according to the Urban Institute, sitting at an average of $611 per month.
Several states have seen massive year-over-year premium increases, with Arkansas seeing a 69 percent increase compared to 2025 and Washington seeing a 45 percent increase. Texas saw a 35 percent increase for Marketplace plans.
The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) released a report July 8 and updated Aug. 3 revealing that health insurance premiums are likely to rise at least 15 percent in 2027, marking the second consecutive year that has seen a double-digit premium hike. The median nationwide finalized rate change was 20 percent in 2026.
The cost of childcare is another massive burden on families, with a report from the Bank of America Institute released Oct. 20 finding that childcare eats up around eight percent of a family’s total monthly budget nationwide.
Childcare is only considered affordable when it represents less than seven percent of the monthly budget. The report also found nearly eight percent of families spend over $2,000 a month on childcare services — double the share that spent this much just three years ago.
It is worth noting that not everything has risen in cost under President Trump. An NBC News tracker of grocery costs, for example, found that while certain items such as beef and orange juice remain at elevated highs, other items like eggs, chicken breast, and bacon have declined since Trump took office.
Not all price hikes are downstream of rising national fuel prices and the Iran conflict, either. In the case of healthcare, the affordability crisis appears to be a downstream effect of the Affordable Care Act that Democrats fought to push through Congress in 2010. The affordability crisis is far from a Republican or Democrat issue. However, voters did what data shows people do historically when affordability spirals out of control: they sent an urgent message to the party in control.
Not all of these issues can be solved rapidly in the next few months, but downstream of lower fuel prices will be lower costs for other necessities, and that is what voters are demanding Congress fix by ending the Iran conflict. Republicans would also do well to remind voters that Democrat solutions like the inappropriately named “Affordable” Care Act rarely pay off as promised, and more often than not saddle the middle class with the bill.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
