Conservatives staged a coup in 2024 with the election of President Donald Trump, winning the popular vote for the first time for a Republican in two decades and drawing broad support from young people, independents, and minorities.
Fast forward two years, and Republicans took a blow in the Nov. 3 general election, losing both the House and Senate to Democrats.
While Democrats are celebrating their newfound power, it is worth noting that the data points to a clear trend. Democrats’ “blue wave” was more due to large numbers of conservatives sitting out the election to send a message to the establishment GOP that inflation had gotten out of control, and swing voters largely switched parties to send the same message.
However, Democrats would do well to remember the 2024 presidential election, and the actions that got them chastised by the American people four years, ago. While a number of political issues merged to cerate the environment that rejected the Democratic presidential pick former Vice President Kamala Harris and elect President Trump to a second term, two key issues stick out. Immigration was an issue that Democrats kept failing with, with a vast number of illegal immigrants entering the country under the Biden/Harris administration.
Voters had had enough, and sided with conservatives. Another factor in the 2024 election was the basket of wild, cultural issues that Democrats were pushing on the public between 2020 and 2024. This included a wild lurch to the far-left on transgender issues, and an attempt to push transgender issues on children and wrench power away from when it came to their children’s education. Democrats refusal to protect the border, and embrace of left-wing social issues like the BLM riots and transgender issues, cost them greatly with swing voters in 2024.
Now, Democrats are riding the high of their blue wave from Nov. 3, but if they attempt to resurrect the Open Borders immigration policies and left-wing cultural agenda that got them voted out in 2024, they will risk their newfound power.
First, turnout was an issue, with analysis from Lenny Bronner, founder at Broome Street Labs, finding that Democrats voted in 2026 as if it were a presidential cycle, and Republicans simply didn’t.
Bronner’s analysis points to the fact that across states like Texas, Ohio, Arkansas, and West Virginia, Democratic vote totals on Election Night were close to their 2024 benchmarks for Kamala Harris.
Republican candidates, meanwhile, suffered steep drop-offs compared to the number of votes president Trump secured in Texas, Ohio, Virginia, Arkansas, and West Virginia. Republican candidates lost between roughly 15 and 46 votes per 100 cast for Trump in 2024 across the various county categories.
The data shows that Republicans didn’t show up in as high of numbers as Democrats did, but it also fails to show significant party-switching. Broome Streets’ data using precinct results from 11 states shows that a majority of 2024 Trump voters supported Republican candidates again in 2026.
Lenny Bronner found that for every hundred Trump voters, 63 voted Republican in the midterms, while just four crossed party lines. However, a full 33 out of every hundred Trump voters did not vote or voted third party. Harris voters held the line for Democrats. Out of every hundred Harris voters, 85 voted for Democrats, just two crossed over and supported Republicans and 13.5 didn’t vote or voted third party.
CNN exit polls reveal that Republican voters also made up the smallest share of voters on Election Day 2026, with just 32 percent of voters identifying as Republicans, while 35 percent identified as Democrats and 33 percent identified as independents. Independents supported Democrats by 20 points, 58 percent to 38 percent.
Republicans faced a very real issue without President Trump on the ballot to mobilize low-propensity voters, and the lingering war with Iran and gas prices remaining elevated further depressed the vote.
Exit polls from NBC News reveal that a full 66 percent of voters said Trump policies had worsened economic conditions, while only 27 percent believed Trump polices had improved economic conditions.
What is more, the economy was the most important issue cited by voters on election night, with the largest share (39 percent), saying the economy was their primary issue. Voters who prioritized the economy voted for Democrats by six points, 52 percent to 46 percent.
However, it would be hasty to conflate the blue wave on Nov. 3 with a full embrace of the Democratic Party’s agenda that voters rejected in 2024.
Voters elected Democrats to send a message to end the Iran conflict, bring down fuel prices, and address the cost-of-living crisis. But there is little evidence that these economically motivated swing voters are willing to side with Democrats on a Biden-era open borders agenda or a host of left-wing social issues.
Exit polls reveal that voters who prioritized immigration and crime supported Republicans at wide margins. Among the thirteen percent of voters who prioritized immigration (the third most important issue to voters), voters supported Republicans by 79 points, 89 percent to just ten percent. While only three percent of voters prioritized crime on election night over five other issues those who did supported Republicans by 60 points, 79 percent to 19 percent.
Exit polls reveal that both immigration and crime provided structural safety for Republican candidates on Nov. 3, although those issues were of lesser importance than sending a stern message on the cost of living. But when voters did prioritize crime and immigration, they supported Republicans by wide margins.
In addition, voters voted against a number of left-wing transgender bills, indicating Democrats’ social agenda was not widely embraced. On Election Day, voters in four states, including Washington and Colorado, voted for ballot measures keeping transgender athletes from competing in girls’ sports or banning surgeries for minors.
In Washington state, a state that has been a leader in radical left-wing cultural policies in recent years, voters revolted and voted for Initiative 638, a ballot measure which bans transgender athletes from playing on school sports teams that do not match their biological sex. Opponents are calling the bill “the most extreme” trans sports ban of its kind and mounting a legal attack, but voters in Washington had had enough.
Voters may have used the recent election cycle to express their deep frustration with the cost-of-living crisis and demand Republicans end the Iran conflict, but there is little evidence that the majority of voters that pushed Democrats over the edge embrace the militant left-wing ideology that lost Democrats the Presidential Election two years ago.
Republicans need to zero in on solving the cost-of-living crisis and ending the conflict with Iran, as the people have spoken on those issues. However, Democrats have every opportunity to bind themselves in a repeat of the 2024 election if they attempt to reverse the work the GOP has done on securing the border and eliminating the left-wing cultural agenda forced on young people.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
