In one of the biggest gambles in recent presidential history, President Joe Biden will be squaring off against former President Donald Trump in the earliest presidential debate in American history: June 27.
In fact, since 1976 — there were no debates between 1964 and 1972 — all general election presidential debates occurred in September and October of the election year. The debates in 1960 were all in September and October as well. Before that, there were no general election debates, just campaigns.
Why so early? Besides the increased prevalence of early voting — the 2020 debates occurred as early voting largely began in October during the Covid pandemic — the reason for the earliest general election debate in presidential history is obvious: President Biden has been receiving a shellacking in the polls and needs to change the nature of the race now before sour voter attitudes against him completely solidify over the summer, sealing his fate.
It’s now or never.
Biden has been trailing national polls on average since about Sept. 2023, according to RealClearPolling.com, with the current average showing Trump at 46.7 percent and Biden at 45.6 percent. The implication is that Biden is doing so poorly, that even the national popular vote is in question.
The reason this is a gamble is because an early debate, rather than offsetting voter attitudes against him, could only serve to affirm them as Americans remain underwater on personal income versus inflation. Almost everything will depend not only on Biden’s competence, stamina and ability to handle questions, but specifically how he counters the fact that Americans are simply not better off than they were four years ago under Trump.
In fact, overall consumer prices are up 18.8 percent since Feb. 2021 while personal incomes are only up 17.6 percent. Ironically, in a few more months, incomes will likely finally surpass prices, but by then it might be too late for the public to change its mind about Biden.
The most recent Harvard-Harris poll taken May 15 and May 16 shows Trump leading Biden 53 percent to 47 percent, including 48 percent who say their financial situation is getting worse. Of those, 30 percent of Democrats say it is getting worse, 67 percent of Republicans say it is getting worse and 47 percent of independents say it is getting worse. Only 42 percent of Democrats, 15 percent of Republicans and 26 percent of independents say it is getting better.
But another undercurrent, besides Biden needing to shore up losses he is presently taking, is the debate will be almost two full months before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Ill. in August. This makes the debate by design a test Biden against Trump and then run the numbers, and if they still don’t look good, potentially force the elder Biden, now 81 years old, off the stage.
As if that would improve the situation. Incumbent presidents stepping aside didn’t help Democrats in 1952 and 1968, but at least those situations offered enough time for another candidate to build political support. A late Biden departure, on the other hand, would be towards an untested candidate who likely would have difficulty building the wide, national coalition necessary to win the Electoral College. In short, the dark horse never rides.
Meaning, for better or for worse, the Democrats might be stuck with Biden — and his ability to get reelected may in fact come down to how well he can fare in the early debate against Trump, who the Biden campaign may be hoping will be unprepared or undisciplined. This is pure panic. Right now, the race appears to be Trump’s to lose.
In challenging Trump to the debate on X.com on May 15, Biden declared, “Make my day, pal.” Trump immediately accepted. Be careful what you wish for, Mr. President.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
