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11.01.2008 0

Perspective: Seeing the Forest and the Trees

  • On: 11/04/2008 10:47:48
  • In: Elections
  • By Bill Wilson

    Election Day has finally arrived. Most Americans are more relieved than excited. It has been a long, tiresome affair full of virtually every imaginable diversion, huckster and freak-show. But at long last it is come to an end. Hundreds of self-appointed experts will now spend countless hours trying to tell the American People what it all means, how “historic” the election is for this reason or that. But it is important to try to maintain some perspective and see things as they are.

    First, America is still deeply divided. If the polls are correct, Senator Obama will become the first Democrat in more than 30 years to garner more than 50 percent of the popular vote. Still, tens of millions of Americans will reject him and his mantra of state socialism and New Left theology. Let’s keep this in perspective. America’s normal tendency is to switch parties in the White House after 8 years of another party. The FDR/Truman high water mark of 5 consecutive wins is does not occur absent World War and an international Depression.

    So, simply playing the odds, the Democrats should be expected to win. And after spending more than $600 million, much of it from unknown and possibly illegal sources, Senator Obama in his heart of hearts knows he will be narrowly scraping by a flawed opponent carrying the weight of a President who is intensely disliked. Let’s hold back a bit on silly words like “landslide” and “mandate.” It will be neither.

    Second, we have now seen with clear eyes how the dying mainstream national media plans to leave this life: as a full-throated partisan breaking every rule of honest journalism. Virtually nothing they say can be believed. Polls show the American people have very little tolerance left for the over-paid talking heads and pompous scribes. The future belongs to the masses of writers, thinkers and investigative reporters who will publish at the local level and on the Internet. So, may the New York Times and NBC News and all their cronies rest in peace. We will not miss you for one second.

    Third, Congress will move more Democratic. The margins will grow in both chambers and the shift will be hailed as further proof of the ascending support for left-wing politics. But that really isn’t the true story.

    The Democratic majority in the House rests on the backs of dozens of relatively new members who come from conservative districts. In many cases these new Democratic Representatives ran races that were indistinguishable from a mainstream conservative Republican. Now they get tested. Over and over again these members will be asked to choose – Nancy Pelosi, Barrack Obama and the radical leftist agenda, or the view of their constituents. Remember, the honorific is “Representative,” not “Congressman.” These people have to represent the views of their people. If they don’t, they will be gone.

    This internal tension will decide the fate of the Obama regime.

    And finally, the media hype of a “new politics” and all the associated happy-talk themes of reconciliation aside, the voters are going to send a very mixed message. From gay marriage, to taxes, to affirmative action, America has not changed. The people oppose having the government give special privileges and benefits to one group of people because of the color of their skin. American still hate taxes and want to pay less. Americans still hold to a traditional view of morality and social relationships.

    Here are some things to watch tonight that will help give better perspective.

    1. Does Barrack Obama’s final percentage exceed the number he is getting in the final round of polls? Throughout the primaries, the number Obama had in the last poll was the number he got. He did not grow and did not garner any last minute support from undecided voters. If this holds, McCain will do better than projected. It will in all likelihood still not be enough to win but it will expose Obama’s Achilles’ heel. As the magic dust washes from the eyes of many voters and his support begins to fade, there will be nothing but his core support from African-Americans and the radical Left – and of course the obsequious fops in the mainstream media – to back him up. Once this guy starts to fall, he will go down hard.

    2. Any talk of an historic Democratic victory in the Congress must be gauged against their biggest win in the post World War era. In the 1964 elections, LBJ carried in 290 House Democrats and 68 in the Senate. Anything less than this means the Congressional elections are just another swing of the pendulum, nothing more.

    And, if the GOP becomes more homogeneous – if the ranks of the quisling liberals are decimated – they will actually be in a better position than when they started.

    3. And finally, watch state Senate and House elections. These are preludes to the reapportionment election of 2010. While it must be expected that Democrats will make gains, the question is where those gains are made. They can pick up all the seats in the Northeast they want, it won’t make any difference. But on the margins, battles in swing states and in other regions of the country will make a huge difference come the next reapportionment.

    While it would be nice to think that with the end of this marathon race for the White House things would calm down a bit and we as a nation could retreat to more “normal times,” that is not to be. The continuous political warfare will only increase. It will be played out in different battlegrounds and highlight different issues. But there will be no peace and those dedicated to individual liberty and constitutional principle will give no surrender.

    Bill Wilson is the President of Americans for Limited Government.

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